Investment Ratings - The report maintains a Sell rating on COSCO Shipping Holding (1919 HK, HK$12.1 TP) and Yang Ming Marine (2609 TT, NT$59 TP) while assigning a Neutral rating to Maersk [3][89][92] Core Insights - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, which is slightly negative compared to market expectations [1] - Capacity growth in the shipping industry is projected at +10% YoY in July, with specific growth rates of +15% for the US and +20% for Europe [3] - Air freight rates have shown a decline of -2% YoY in June, indicating a potential softening in demand [1][3] Capacity and Demand - The overall capacity growth is +10% YoY in July, with a total number of scheduled sailings increasing by approximately +9% YoY [3] - The idling rate is at 3.4% by TEU, slightly below the ten-year average of 4.5% [4] - Cancelled sailings are at 7.1% this week, which is below the previous year's level of 8.1% [3] Tariff Implications - The 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam is expected to drive supply chain diversification away from China, particularly towards ASEAN countries [2] - The potential for tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% could challenge demand growth in the second half of 2025, although low-single-digit growth is still anticipated [3] Freight Rates and Market Dynamics - Air freight rates have decreased by -2% YoY in June, reflecting a broader trend of declining rates in the shipping sector [1][3] - Schedule reliability improved to 58.7% in April, indicating better operational performance in the shipping industry [4] Company Valuations - Maersk's target price is set at DKK13,591, based on a blend of price/book and EV/EBITDA valuations, reflecting market skepticism towards the sector [86] - COSCO Shipping Holdings has a target price of HK$12.1, based on a 0.7x 2026E PBV [89] - Yang Ming Marine's target price is NT$59, based on a 0.6x 2026E PBV [92]