I do wonder, how is the shipping industry reacting to this news this morning. It's much along the lines of how you just summarized it. I think there's a lot of caution.You know, what is this cease fire exactly. You know, how how agreed is it all the parts of it. So many things are kind of unclear.If you you know, if you look at the ten point plan that Iran is supposedly putting forward, there seem to be different kind of demands that we're seeing. So what is you know, what's the actual detail of the of the ...

Amazon will start charging sellers who use its shipping services a 3.5% “fuel and logistics” surcharge later this month, joining the ranks of shipping companies raising prices as the war in Iran pushes oil prices higher. https://t.co/Mg4jNtYAr6 ...

RT BRICS News (@BRICSinfo)JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran says any European, Asian, or Arab country is welcome to reach out for an agreement to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)A closed strait is not what gives Iran leverage.Their military veto power over commercial shipping through the strait is what gives them leverage. And they are certainly not going to give that up. Nor does any armed force in the world any longer have the ability to take away such a veto power. The military technology and tactics that give Iran this power were aptly demonstrated by their proxy the Houthis at the Bab-El-Mandeb a year ago.Iran is happy to open up the Strait of Hormuz ...

RT Drop Site (@DropSiteNews)🇨🇳 China blames U.S. and Israel for Strait of Hormuz disruptions➤ Speaking in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said: “The root cause for disruption in Strait of Hormuz is illegal US-Israeli military operation against Iran.”➤ The comments came after President Donald Trump said countries reliant on the waterway should “grab it and cherish it,” suggesting they secure the route themselves.➤ China, which depends heavily on Middle East energy imports, said several of its ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)A closed strait is not what gives Iran leverage.Their military veto power over commercial shipping through the strait is what gives them leverage. And they are certainly not going to give that up. Nor does any armed force in the world any longer have the ability to take away such a veto power. The military technology and tactics that give Iran this power were aptly demonstrated by their proxy the Houthis at the Bab-El-Mandeb a year ago.Iran is happy to open up the Strait of Hormuz ...

Turkey is seeking permission from Iranian authorities for 11 Turkish-owned ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported https://t.co/29MwUHGzFR ...

Summary of China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Co Ltd (601872.SS) - **Industry**: Energy Shipping Key Points and Arguments 1. **Management Outlook on VLCC**: Management remains optimistic about Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), projecting a one-year Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) of approximately US$130,000 per day, which is expected to support TCE levels with potential for further upside if the Strait of Hormuz reopens [1][6][7] 2. **Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated to reduce export volumes; however, management believes this can be partially mitigated by increased exports from Yanbu, the release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and strong arbitrage demand due to oil price differences across regions [1][6] 3. **Aging Fleet Utilization**: VLCCs older than 20 years are operating at lower utilization rates, with 40-70% of these older compliant vessels being used for floating storage. The average age of the company's VLCC fleet is 10 years, with utilization rates previously at 95-97% before the Iran conflict [1][7] 4. **TCE Performance**: The company's VLCC TCE was reported at approximately US$80,000 per day in Q4 2025, outperforming the market due to higher spot exposure. Management indicated that a US$10,000 per day increase in TCE could lead to a pre-tax profit increase of RMB 1 billion [1][7] 5. **Arbitrage Demand**: Management highlighted that arbitrage demand, driven by oil price differences across regions, is a significant factor supporting elevated TCE levels. They noted that the TCE from Yanbu Port to China is currently at WS150-250, while TCE from West Africa and the US Gulf to China ranges from US$100,000 to US$150,000 per day [1][6] 6. **Future Ship Deliveries**: The current order book for new ship deliveries is only 50% compared to the number of aged ships, indicating a potential supply constraint in the future [1][7] 7. **Middle East Disruption**: Management noted that approximately 4 million barrels of crude oil are exported from Yanbu daily, with plans to increase this to 5 million barrels per day as per Saudi Arabia's strategy. The disruption in the Middle East and increased exports from the US and Brazil have led to the redeployment of many tankers [1][6] Additional Important Information - **CAPEX for Aging Fleet**: To enhance operational efficiency, management estimates that the aging fleet requires an annual capital expenditure of approximately US$10-20 million [1][7] - **Market Context**: The management's insights reflect a broader context of geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply routes and the shipping industry, emphasizing the importance of regional dynamics in shipping demand [1][6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding China Merchants Energy Shipping's operational outlook, market conditions, and strategic considerations in the energy shipping sector.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy - **Ticker**: 1138.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$90.5 billion / $11.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$103.3 billion / $13.2 billion - **Industry**: Transportation, specifically oil shipping Key Financial Results - **FY25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.0 billion, with a 4Q25 net profit of Rmb1.3 billion (+112% YoY / +54% QoQ) [2] - **Recurring Profit**: Excluding one-off items, FY25 recurring profit was Rmb3.9 billion, with 4Q25 recurring profit also at Rmb1.3 billion, missing consensus by 35% [2] - **Final Dividend**: Rmb0.38 per share, representing a 51% payout of full-year recurring profit [2] Operational Highlights - **VLCC Spot TCE**: Recognized TCE in 4Q25 was above US$70k/day, with some revenue recognition delayed to 1Q26 [3] - **Fleet Management**: 8 vessels are held inside the Gulf, unable to collect demurrage fees; 10 VLCCs redirected to Yanbu with TCE of US$170-180k/day [3] - **Load Factor**: Excluding vessels in the Persian Gulf, the load factor of the remaining fleet is maintained at 50-55%, similar to pre-war levels [3] - **VLCC Fleet**: 51 VLCCs in operation, with 6 new VLCCs scheduled for delivery in 2027-2028; 10-15% of VLCCs are chartered out [3] Market Dynamics - **International Oil Transportation**: Turnover down -7% YoY in 4Q25; however, average crude tanker TCE rose +158% YoY, tracking below industry BDTI TD3C TCE of +186% YoY [19] - **Demand and Supply**: Management believes VLCC deliveries are insufficient to meet replacement demand until 2029, indicating a continued net demand for VLCCs in the near term [3][21] - **Cost Management**: Unit costs fell -4% YoY in 4Q25; charter costs more than doubled YoY, offset by lower unit fuel costs (-17%) [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25: Rmb23.8 billion - FY26E: Rmb38.9 billion - FY27E: Rmb36.9 billion - FY28E: Rmb34.9 billion [7] - **EPS Projections**: - FY25: Rmb0.79 - FY26E: Rmb2.45 - FY27E: Rmb2.11 - FY28E: Rmb1.73 [7] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating**: COSCO Shipping Energy is rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of the VLCC super-cycle driven by tight capacity and industry consolidation [20] - **Market Share**: The company holds a 5% share of the global seaborne crude oil tanker market and a 1% share of the product oil tanker market [35] - **Growth Drivers**: Limited capacity additions, structural demand increases due to geopolitical factors, and COSCO's diversified fleet position are expected to support continued growth [35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - OPEC output reductions - Higher-than-expected capacity deliveries - Weaker oil consumption demand due to macroeconomic conditions [32] Conclusion COSCO Shipping Energy's recent performance reflects strong operational metrics despite some revenue recognition delays. The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market dynamics, with a solid growth outlook supported by its extensive fleet and strategic management decisions.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the April contract is gradually becoming clear. The PA alliance is facing significant cargo - booking pressure, and it is necessary to monitor whether the OA alliance will follow suit in price cuts. The estimated settlement price of the 04 contract is around 1660 points if the Maersk price remains flat next week, and around 1630 points if it drops by $100/FEU [4]. - The price of the EC2605 contract in the second half of April is weak and may continue to decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The spot price of $3000 in May has been fully priced in, and the 5 - month contract will gradually enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - The contracts for June, July, and August are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the demand side from Asia to Europe [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK15 quote is $1470/2360, and WEEK16 is $1390/2220. HPL has different quotes for different months' sailings [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Trump will give a national speech on the Iranian issue on Thursday morning [2]. - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports varies from March to May. There are also TBNs and empty sailings in April and May [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2604 contract: The Maersk WEEK16 price continues to decline. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th. The estimated settlement price is affected by Maersk's price changes [4]. - EC2605 contract: The price in the second half of April is weak and may decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The 5 - month contract will enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts: These contracts are expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption, small delivery pressure of large ships, and high demand growth [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Arbitrage: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of March 31, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 35,422.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,052.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, and the SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [8].