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中国房地产-7 月数据全面恶化;我们预计疲软趋势将持续-China Property-Monthly Tracker July Data Worsened on All Fronts; We
2025-08-18 08:22
Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends and data from July 2025, indicating a continued decline in property sales and prices across various city tiers [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Decline in Property Sales**: - Property sales in July 2025 worsened, with primary sales volume in 65 cities down **21% year-on-year** compared to **24% in June**. Secondary sales in 33 cities decreased by **14% year-on-year**, worsening from **8% in June** [3]. - Year-to-date growth for primary sales is now at **-10% year-on-year**, while secondary sales show a growth of **+9% year-on-year** for the first seven months of 2025 [3]. 2. **Falling Housing Prices**: - Primary home prices in 70 cities dropped **3.4% year-on-year** and **0.3% month-on-month**. Secondary home prices fell **5.9% year-on-year** and **0.5% month-on-month** [4]. - In top-10 cities, secondary prices decreased by **5.1% year-on-year** and **0.6% month-on-month**, while in top-100 cities, the decline was **7.3% year-on-year** and **0.8% month-on-month** [4]. 3. **Increased Inventory Levels**: - Primary inventory months rose to **24.1x** in July, up from **23.8x** in June, indicating a significant increase in unsold properties across all city tiers [6]. - Tier 1 cities saw inventory levels increase to **14.5x**, tier 2 cities to **24.1x**, and tier 3 cities to **29.8x** [6]. 4. **Weakening Land Sales**: - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by **14.3% year-on-year** in gross floor area (GFA), although the value increased by **8.3% year-on-year** due to changes in city mix [7]. - The land auction failure rate rose to **8.5%**, up from **4.0% in June**, indicating a challenging environment for land sales [7]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - The analysis suggests a cautious approach, recommending investors to focus on quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with high visibility, such as **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **CR Mixc (1209.HK)**, as well as high-dividend-yield stocks like **C&D (1908.HK)** [2]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the property market remains weak, with expectations that this trend will continue in the coming months due to high inventory and declining prices [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting investments carefully in a challenging market environment, highlighting the potential for alpha generation through quality SOEs [1][2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China property market, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.