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Household and Firm Exposure to Heat and Floods in South Asia
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-16 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Climate change is increasing household exposure to extreme heat and floods, disproportionately affecting poorer households in South Asia. Poorer households experience more heat and recurrent flooding compared to wealthier households. Smaller firms are also more exposed to these climate shocks [4][47]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate change is projected to raise global temperatures by 0.9 to 5.4 degrees Celsius by the century's end, posing challenges to economic growth and poverty reduction in emerging markets and developing countries [8]. - Extreme heat and natural disasters like floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, leading to significant economic damage and adverse effects on health, education, and agricultural productivity [9][10]. Data and Methodology - The study utilizes spatially detailed data on climate shocks and relative wealth, specifically the Relative Wealth Index (RWI), to analyze the exposure of households and firms to climate risks in South Asia [21][24]. - The analysis includes data from the Economic Census of India, which captures information on over 58 million non-agricultural firms, and temperature data aggregated over five years [22][24]. Results - **Extreme Heat and Relative Wealth**: - Poorer households are more exposed to higher temperatures, with urban areas showing a 0.5 standard deviation lower RWI at 34 degrees Celsius compared to 30 degrees Celsius. In rural areas, the difference is 0.3 standard deviations [34]. - **Flooding and Relative Wealth**: - Urban areas that experienced flooding have a lower RWI compared to non-flooded areas, while rural areas show the opposite trend, with flooded locations having a higher RWI [36][37]. - **Firms and Climate Shocks**: - Smaller non-agricultural firms are more exposed to heat and flooding than larger firms. In urban areas, firms in hotter locations have 0.25 fewer employees compared to those in cooler areas [39][41]. Conclusion - The report concludes that poorer households and smaller firms are more vulnerable to climate risks, highlighting the need for policies that address these disparities. The findings suggest that wealthier individuals and firms are more likely to relocate away from high-risk areas, exacerbating the exposure of the poor [47][49][53].