Commercial real estate or CRA is now more screwed than it was in 2008. Nearly 12% of US office loans are dead. Apartment loan defaults doubled in the last year and a trillion dollar of CRA needs refinancing by December at rates that make the maths impossible.Meanwhile, private equity has assembled a $400 billion war chest for what they're calling quote the greatest distressed cycle in 40 years. And somehow none of this is front page news. My name is Guy and today we're going to talk about the $20 trillion c ...

Company Overview - Ladder Capital Corp (LADR) is a Commercial Real Estate Real Estate Investment Trust (CRE REIT) that has been operating in public markets since 2014 [1] - The company is recognized as one of the better-performing CRE REITs, focusing on the middle market niche [1] Investment Strategy - Binary Tree Analytics (BTA) aims to provide transparency and analytics regarding capital markets instruments and trades, with a focus on Closed-End Funds (CEFs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Special Situations [1] - BTA's objective is to deliver high annualized returns while maintaining a low volatility profile [1] Experience and Background - The investment team has over 20 years of experience in the industry, with a background in finance from a top university [1]

Investment Ratings - CBRE Group, Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $143.00 [16] - Colliers International Group Inc.: Neutral; Price Target: $137.00 [21] - Cushman & Wakefield: Neutral; Price Target: $13.00 [25] - Jones Lang LaSalle Inc: Overweight; Price Target: $285.00 [29] Core Insights - The report indicates an overall positive outlook for the commercial real estate (CRE) services sector, with revenue forecasts for 2025 showing an average increase of 3%, leading to a projected 9% year-over-year growth [1] - The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates have been revised upward by 4%, indicating a 12% year-over-year growth, while earnings per share (EPS) estimates have increased by 7%, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth [1] - The report highlights that the estimates have fluctuated over the past six months due to various macroeconomic factors, but recent strong earnings results have led to a renewed optimism in the sector [2][3] Company Summaries CBRE Group, Inc - CBRE is recognized as the largest global provider of CRE services, with a strong track record in capital allocation and organic growth [16] - The company is expected to achieve a compelling earnings growth of 19% in 2025, outperforming asset-heavy landlords and the broader equity market [4] - CBRE's valuation is attractive, trading at 19.8x 2025 EPS, which is below the S&P 500 average of 22.2x [5][17] Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) - CIGI is the third largest global CRE services platform, with a brokerage incremental margin of approximately 20%, which is lower than its peers [21] - The company has been actively acquiring businesses, averaging over $300 million per year, and is investing in investment management and engineering acquisitions [21] - CIGI trades at 18.8x 2025 EPS, slightly below CBRE but above CWK [22] Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) - CWK is positioned to benefit from the institutionalization of real estate investing, although it faces challenges due to its higher leverage [25] - The company is expected to improve margins as it scales, but specific risks remain that could impact its performance [25] - CWK trades at a low valuation of 8.4x 2025 EPS, indicating potential upside if it can manage its leverage effectively [26] Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. (JLL) - JLL is the second largest commercial real estate services platform globally, with a competitive EBITDA margin of 14.8% [29] - The company is well-positioned for growth, particularly with expectations of a rebound in capital markets [29] - JLL trades at 12.9x 2025 EPS, which is attractive compared to its peers, and maintains a price target of $285.00 [30][31]