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WaFd Bank CEO: Scratch my head to the timing of the Fed's upcoming rate cut
Youtubeยท 2025-09-17 18:17
Group 1 - The main question regarding the Fed's rate decision is whether financial conditions are currently restrictive, particularly for smaller banks, and the implications of a 25 basis point cut compared to a 75 basis point cut [2][3] - A 25 basis point decrease in rates is expected to benefit all banks, especially regional banks, and improve conditions for clients [3][6] - There is skepticism about the timing of a rate cut given that stocks and real estate values are at all-time highs, inflation remains above the Fed's target, and unemployment is low [4][5] Group 2 - Loan demand is anticipated to increase regardless of the Fed's decision, but a 25 basis point cut could further stimulate economic demand by making it easier for borrowers to meet debt service coverage ratios [6] - Concerns about commercial real estate have not materialized as expected, and recent rate decreases have allowed borrowers to secure better rates than nine months ago [6][7] - The housing market is experiencing stagnation, with poor housing start numbers indicating a need for lower mortgage rates to stimulate activity [8][9] Group 3 - Current mortgage rates have decreased to approximately 6.4%, down from around 7% a few months ago, but there is a need to further reduce spreads between mortgage rates and the 10-year yield [11] - The housing cost issue is primarily supply-driven, and increasing housing supply could lead to lower housing costs [11][12] - The increase in mortgage rates has not led to a decrease in residential real estate values, which is contrary to typical market behavior [12]