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Investment Rating - The industry view for Greater China Materials is rated as Attractive [3] Core Insights - Copper, aluminum, and gold are expected to remain at elevated levels, while supply cuts in steel and cement are anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Morgan Stanley's commodity forecasts indicate a divergence from consensus, with higher price expectations for aluminum and copper compared to market consensus [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Commodity Price Forecasts - Aluminum price forecast for 2H2025 is $2,700 per ton, which is 10% higher than consensus [7] - Copper price forecast for 2H2025 is $9,825 per ton, 5% above consensus [7] - Gold price forecast for 2H2025 is $3,650 per ounce, 13% higher than consensus [7] Steel and Cement Demand - Steel demand drivers include residential property (14%), infrastructure (17%), and machinery (30%) [13] - Anticipated supply cuts in steel and cement are expected to impact market dynamics in the second half of the year [1] Consumption Indices - The China Steel Consumption Index shows a year-on-year change indicating fluctuations in demand across various sectors [14] - The China Copper Consumption Index reflects significant contributions from power (47%) and white goods (15%) sectors [17][19] - The China Aluminum Consumption Index indicates property and passenger vehicle sectors as major demand drivers [23] Infrastructure Spending - Infrastructure spending has increased, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in May 2025 [30] - Monthly total issuance of local government special bonds shows a trend towards increased funding for infrastructure projects [37] Key Companies Under Coverage - Companies covered include Baosteel, Jiangxi Copper, Zijin, and China Hongqiao among others in the materials sector [5]

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