钢材：原料供应搅动，钢价持续震荡 GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量195.30万吨（+21.99），热卷小样本产量295.26万吨（-5.85）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均221.2万吨（-6.39），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率43.2%（+12.5）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在 3473（折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-235.43元/吨左右，谷电成本3308（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电 利润-90元/吨。由于铁水继续减产，铁废差仍然回升，而电炉出现亏损，节后电炉快速复产，废钢日耗在44.57万吨， 预计下周继续增产；长流程钢整体依然亏损，钢厂增产积极性不足，但预计下周开始陆续复产。 需求：My ...

Core Viewpoint - Tree Island Steel reported a significant decline in revenues and profits for the year ended December 31, 2025, primarily due to lower U.S. sales volumes impacted by tariffs and a strategic withdrawal from unprofitable product lines, while focusing on strengthening its position in the Canadian market [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, revenues were $32.4 million, down from $44.8 million in Q4 2024, attributed to lower U.S. sales and strategic product line withdrawals [2]. - Full-year revenues totaled $161.8 million, a decrease from $207.0 million in 2024, despite higher average selling prices [3]. - Gross profit declined to $9.5 million from $11.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased to $3.0 million from $4.3 million, reflecting lower sales and production volumes [3][6]. - The company implemented cost-management initiatives, including a 27% workforce reduction, to mitigate the impact of reduced volumes [3]. Dividends and Future Outlook - The company paid quarterly dividends of $0.015 per share in 2025 but has suspended dividend payments in 2026 due to ongoing economic uncertainty [4]. - The total assets as of December 31, 2025, were $154.9 million, down from $168.8 million in 2024 [5]. Operational Insights - The company continues to focus on the Canadian market amidst challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, indicating a strategic shift in market focus [4]. - The company produces a variety of wire products for industrial, residential, commercial, and agricultural applications, marketed under several brand names [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tree Island Steel reported a significant decline in revenues and profits for the year ended December 31, 2025, primarily due to lower U.S. sales volumes impacted by tariffs and a strategic withdrawal from unprofitable product lines, while focusing on strengthening its position in the Canadian market [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, revenues were $32.4 million, down from $44.8 million in Q4 2024, attributed to reduced U.S. sales and strategic product line withdrawals [2]. - Full-year revenues totaled $161.8 million, a decrease from $207.0 million in 2024, despite higher average selling prices [3]. - Gross profit fell to $9.5 million from $11.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased to $3.0 million from $4.3 million, reflecting lower sales and production volumes [3]. - The company implemented cost-management initiatives, including a 27% workforce reduction, to address the impact of reduced volumes [3]. Dividend Policy - The company paid quarterly dividends of $0.015 per share in 2025 but has decided to suspend dividend payments in 2026 due to ongoing economic uncertainty [4]. Operational Insights - The company reported an operating loss of $2.957 million for Q4 2025, compared to a loss of $3.157 million in Q4 2024, and a full-year loss of $6.443 million, up from $3.125 million in 2024 [5][6]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2025, were $154.88 million, down from $168.82 million in 2024 [6]. Market Focus - Tree Island Steel aims to strengthen its position in the Canadian market while navigating challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [4]. - The company produces a variety of wire products for industrial, residential, commercial, and agricultural applications, marketed under several brand names [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter results included an Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 95.2 million, reflecting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of -20.9% and cash used in operating activities of CAD 3 million [11][12] - For the full year 2025, Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CAD 261.4 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of -12.5%, compared to a gain of CAD 22.4 million and a margin of 0.9% in 2024 [16] - The company finished the quarter with CAD 77 million in cash, CAD 195 million available under the revolving credit facility, and CAD 417 million under the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments in the fourth quarter were 378,000 net tons, down 31% year-over-year, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [12][15] - For the full year, shipments totaled 1.7 million net tons, compared to 2 million net tons in 2024 [15] - Steel revenue for the fourth quarter was CAD 408 million, down 23.9% year-over-year, as lower shipment volumes offset higher realized prices [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian market experienced an oversupply of coil, driving domestic transaction prices as much as 40% below comparable U.S. levels [6] - Plate pricing continued to enjoy a significant premium relative to hot-rolled coil, driven by resilient demand [13] - The Canadian dollar strengthened approximately 5% over 2025, impacting financial results when converted from U.S. dollars [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pivoting its commercial strategy towards the Canadian market, exiting blast furnace and coke oven operations, and focusing on high-value products [5][10] - A binding MOU with Hanwha Ocean Co Ltd was announced, with a potential value of CAD 250 million, indicating a strategic shift towards defense and industrial supply chains [9] - The company aims to optimize for margin quality rather than volume, reducing exposure to tariff-distorted global markets [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged 2025 as a challenging year due to the 50% U.S. Section 232 tariff, which dismantled the cross-border business model [18] - The company is committed to exploring product diversification initiatives to support Canadian industrial policy [19] - Management expressed confidence in the direction of the company, highlighting the foundation for long-term value creation [21] Other Important Information - The company has absorbed CAD 225 million in direct tariff costs for the full year, reflecting a structural shift in the industry [7] - Accelerated depreciation of blast furnace and basic oxygen steelmaking assets was captured in the cost of sales during the quarter [14] - The company is aware of pending litigation with U.S. Steel regarding an iron ore supply agreement [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for full year shipments and their split between plate and sheet? - The company expects total shipments between 1 and 1.2 million tons for the year, with a 50/50 mix between plate and sheet products [24][25] Question: How exposed are energy costs to the current spot market? - The company generates power from its own natural gas-fired power plant and consumes power from the grid, which is subject to Ontario's spot rate pricing [26] Question: What is the current status of plate pricing in Canada? - Plate pricing is holding up better than sheet pricing, with a 15%-20% discount compared to the index, while sheet pricing is approximately 40% lower [34] Question: What are the expected milestones for the beam mill project? - The company is working on engineering, cost estimates, and timelines for the beam mill project, with a focus on supporting the Canadian market [37] Question: What is the expected CapEx for the full year? - The company does not expect any change in the total project budget for the EAF, with sustaining CapEx expected to be around CAD 80 million a year [39]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter results included an Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 95.2 million, reflecting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of -20.9% and cash used in operating activities of CAD 3 million [14][15] - For the full year 2025, Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CAD 261.4 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of -12.5%, compared to a gain of CAD 22.4 million and a margin of 0.9% in 2024 [19] - The company finished the quarter with CAD 77 million in cash, CAD 195 million available under the revolving credit facility, and CAD 417 million under the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments in the fourth quarter were 378,000 net tons, down 31% year-over-year, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [15] - For the full year 2025, total shipments were 1.7 million net tons, compared to 2 million net tons in 2024 [18] - Net sales realizations averaged CAD 1,080 per ton for the full year, down from CAD 1,107 per ton in the prior year, reflecting softer market conditions [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments to the U.S. were approximately 30% lower than the average U.S. sales over the previous three quarters as the company began its exit from the U.S. market [9] - Plate pricing continued to enjoy a significant premium relative to hot-rolled coil, driven by resilient demand, while sheet pricing was reported to be 40% lower than the index [16][37] - The Canadian dollar strengthened approximately 5% over the course of 2025, impacting financial results [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pivoting its commercial strategy towards the Canadian market, exiting blast furnace and coke oven operations, and focusing on high-value products [7][12] - A binding MoU with Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. was announced, with a potential value of CAD 250 million, indicating a strategic repositioning towards defense and industrial supply chains [11] - The company aims to evolve from a cross-border commodity producer to a Canadian-focused steel supplier, optimizing for margin quality rather than volume [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged that 2025 was the most challenging year for Canadian steel producers due to the 50% U.S. Section 232 tariff, which dismantled the cross-border business model [21] - The company is committed to exploring product diversification initiatives to support Canadian industrial policy and has implemented mitigation programs for affected employees [22] - The foundation for long-term value creation is in place, with confidence in the company's direction moving forward [24] Other Important Information - The company absorbed CAD 225 million in direct tariff costs for the full year, which are considered a structural shift rather than cyclical headwinds [9] - Accelerated depreciation of blast furnace and basic oxygen steelmaking assets was captured in the cost of sales during the quarter [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for full year shipments and their split between plate and sheet? - The company expects total shipments between 1 and 1.2 million tons for the year, with a mix of roughly 50/50 between plate and sheet [27][28] Question: How exposed are energy costs to the current spot market? - The company generates power from its own natural gas-fired power plant and consumes power from the grid, which is subject to Ontario's spot rate pricing [29] Question: What is the current status of plate pricing in Canada? - Plate pricing is holding up better than sheet pricing, with government measures helping to stabilize the market [36][37] Question: What are the expected milestones for the beam mill project? - The company is working on engineering, cost estimates, and timelines for the beam mill project, with a focus on supporting the Canadian market [39][40] Question: What is the expected CapEx for the full year? - The company does not expect any change in the total project budget for the EAF, with sustaining CapEx expected to be around CAD 80 million a year [42] Question: How is the scrap supply situation? - The scrap availability and supply are progressing well, with the joint venture working effectively [43]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CAD 95.2 million, reflecting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of -20.9% and cash used in operating activities of CAD 3 million [13][14] - For the full year 2025, Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of CAD 261.4 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of -12.5%, compared to a gain of CAD 22.4 million and a margin of 0.9% in 2024 [18] - The company finished the quarter with CAD 77 million in cash and CAD 195 million available under its revolving credit facility [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments in the fourth quarter were 378,000 net tons, down 31% year-over-year, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [14][15] - For the full year, total shipments were 1.7 million net tons, compared to 2 million net tons in 2024 [17] - Net sales realizations averaged CAD 1,080 per ton for the full year, down from CAD 1,107 per ton in the prior year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian dollar strengthened approximately 5% over 2025, moving from CAD 1.44 per USD at year-end 2024 to CAD 1.37 at December 31, 2025 [12] - Plate pricing remained resilient, with a premium over hot-rolled coil, while sheet pricing was approximately 40% lower than the index [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pivoting its commercial strategy towards the Canadian market, exiting blast furnace and coke oven operations, and focusing on high-value products [6][11] - A binding MoU with Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. was announced, with a potential value of CAD 250 million, indicating a strategic shift towards defense and industrial supply chains [10][11] - The company aims to optimize for margin quality rather than volume, reducing exposure to tariff-distorted global markets [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged 2025 as a challenging year due to the 50% U.S. Section 232 tariff, which fundamentally altered the business model for Canadian steel producers [20] - The company is committed to exploring product diversification initiatives and applauded government measures to support the Canadian steel industry [22][23] - Management expressed confidence in the company's direction and the foundation for long-term value creation [24] Other Important Information - The company absorbed CAD 225 million in direct tariff costs for the full year, reflecting a structural shift in the industry [8] - Accelerated depreciation and stranded inventory costs were captured in the cost of sales during the quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for full year shipments? - The company expects total shipments between 1 and 1.2 million tons for the year, with a ramp-up in capacity at EAF [26] Question: What is the expected mix between plate and sheet? - The mix is anticipated to be roughly 50/50 between plate and sheet products [28] Question: How exposed are energy costs to the current spot market? - The company generates power from its own natural gas-fired power plant and consumes power from the grid, which is subject to Ontario's spot rate pricing [29] Question: What is the current status of plate pricing in Canada? - Plate pricing is holding up better than sheet pricing, with government initiatives helping to stabilize the market [36] Question: What are the critical milestones for the beam mill project? - The company is working on engineering, cost estimates, and timelines for the beam mill project, with demand in Canada exceeding supply [40] Question: What is the expected CapEx for the full year? - The company does not expect any change in the total project budget for the EAF, with sustaining CapEx expected to be around CAD 80 million a year [42]

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) Q4 2025 Earnings call March 12, 2026 10:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBenjamin Steinbruch - CEOHelena Guerra - Director of ESG and SustainabilityLuis Fernando Martinez - Executive DirectorMarcelo Arazi - Equity Research Associate DirectorMarco Rabello - CFO and Investor Relations OfficerConference Call ParticipantsDaniel Sasson - Equity Research AnalystEnrique Marquez - AnalystNicholas S. - AnalystPedro Melo - Research AnalystRafael Barcellos - Senior Equity Research ...

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) Q4 2025 Earnings call March 12, 2026 10:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsBenjamin Steinbruch - CEOHelena Guerra - Director of ESG and SustainabilityHenrique Marques - Investment Banking AssociateLuis Fernando Martinez - Executive DirectorMarcelo Arazi - Equity Research Associate DirectorMarco Rabello - CFO and Investor Relations OfficerConference Call ParticipantsDaniel Sasson - Equity Research AnalystPedro Melo - Equity Research AnalystRafael Barcellos - Senior Equity ...

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Commission (the "SEC"), as part of Algoma's Annual Report on Form 40 - F (available at www.sec.gov), as well as in Algoma's current reports with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities and the SEC. Given these risks, uncertainties and other factors, readers should not place undue reliance on forward ‐looking statements or information as a prediction of actual results. The forward ‐looking statements and information reflects management's current expectations and beliefs regarding future events and ope ...