Commodity Split
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帮主郑重:大宗商品分裂!原油跌穿地板金银铜却疯涨?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 01:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant split in the commodities market, with crude oil prices plummeting while precious metals and copper experience substantial gains [1][3] - WTI crude oil fell by 1.47%, closing at $57.6 per barrel, marking the lowest level since October, while silver surged by 3.8% to surpass $64 per ounce, reaching a historical high [3] - Gold increased by 0.9% to $4268, and copper prices soared by 2.7% to $11872 per ton, setting a new record [3] Group 2 - The underlying logic suggests that the Federal Reserve's three consecutive interest rate cuts and a $500 billion expansion of the balance sheet have directly fueled the rise in precious and base metals [4] - The surge in copper prices is attributed to an upward revision of the U.S. GDP forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, indicating a clear signal of economic improvement [4] - In contrast, crude oil is being weighed down by oversupply, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 3.815 million barrels per day in 2026, negating any benefits from geopolitical conflicts [4] Group 3 - The article raises questions about the sustainability of silver at $64, the potential for copper to continue reaching new highs, and whether the drop in crude oil to $57 represents a buying opportunity or a trap [4] - Long-term investment strategies suggest accumulating precious metals on dips, closely monitoring demand for base metals, and waiting for signals of a supply-demand reversal in crude oil [4]