Economic Outlook - Recession risk remains low, with only 8% of global fund managers expecting a global recession in the next 12 months, indicating a consensus that the economy will be stable, which is necessary to support current valuations [1][6] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high (ATH) of over US$4,200 per ounce, marking a 60% increase in 2025, the best performance since 1979 [1][2] - The gold trade is perceived as crowded, with 43% of global fund managers indicating "Long Gold" as the most crowded trade, while 39% of professional investors do not hold any gold in their portfolios [2][6] - The average allocation to gold among investors is just 2.4%, which is near an all-time low, suggesting that gold is becoming more mainstream [2][6] U.S. Fiscal Policy - For the first time, U.S. spending on interest payments has surpassed national defense spending, with interest payments at US$1.2 trillion compared to US$1.1 trillion for defense [3][4][6] - This shift highlights the financial burden of past borrowing, indicating a significant change in fiscal priorities [4][6] Geopolitical Concerns - The outsourcing of rare-earths supply to China is described as a major geopolitical mistake since World War II, emphasizing the critical role of rare-earths in national defense [4][6]

Common knowledge—knowing that others know something, and that they know we know—is powerful. Thinking about it “illuminates many enigmas of our public affairs and personal lives”, Steven Pinker argues, in his fizzing, erudite new book https://t.co/KaY8ooUDUc ...