Core Viewpoint - Shares in Associated British Foods (ABF) fell by 9.7% to £20.23 due to underwhelming sales forecasts from its Primark retail division [2] Group 1: Primark Performance - Primark's sales are expected to rise by 1% in the second half, with growth anticipated to be evenly distributed across Q3 and Q4 [2] - On a like-for-like basis, Primark's sales are projected to decline by 2% year-on-year, with a drop of 2.4% in Q3 and around 2% in Q4 [3] - UK and Irish sales have improved from the first half, attributed to strong product offerings, particularly in womenswear, and increased digital engagement [3] - The US market is described as "strong," while Europe is experiencing a more subdued consumer environment [3] - For the full year, Primark's total sales are expected to rise by 1%, with a store rollout program projected to drive sales growth of approximately 4% [3] Group 2: Grocery and Ingredients - Grocery revenues are expected to remain unchanged in the second half compared to the prior year, with growth in international brands offset by lower sales in Allied Bakeries and US oils [4] - Ingredients sales are also anticipated to be flat year-on-year, with good underlying growth in yeast and bakery ingredients, but impacted by currency devaluation and lower inflation in Argentina [5] Group 3: Sugar Segment - The Sugar segment is expected to record an adjusted operating loss of £40 million for the full year, with profits projected to improve in financial 2027 [6] - Sales and profits in the UK and Spain have significantly declined due to low European sugar prices and high beet costs [5][6] Group 4: Strategic Actions and Market Outlook - The CEO expressed satisfaction with the group's performance in a challenging environment marked by consumer caution, geopolitical uncertainty, and inflation [6] - Recent strategic actions include restructuring the Spanish sugar business, closing the Vivergo bioethanol plant, and acquiring Hovis Group to enhance breadmaking operations [6] - Analyst Mark Crouch noted that while Primark has historically thrived, current updates raise concerns about slowing sales growth in Europe and flat performance in the UK [7] - The acquisition of Hovis could provide a strategic lift, as it is less exposed to commodity swings and offers potential for scale-driven margin gains [7]