Core Insights - Retailers are adapting to a more cautious consumer by launching holiday offerings earlier than usual [1][2] - The holiday shopping season is being influenced by economic factors, including a bifurcation in consumer spending and external pressures like government shutdowns and tariffs [2] Retail Strategies - Kohl's is initiating its holiday marketing campaign a week earlier than last year to capture early shoppers [3] - The strategy includes showcasing holiday merchandise sooner to drive early consumer consideration [3][4] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers are making more frequent trips to stores but purchasing smaller quantities, indicating a more strategic approach to holiday shopping [4] - There is a trend of consumers aggregating their spending around key shopping events to maximize deals [5] Promotional Insights - Retailers are observing a higher take rate on promotions compared to the previous year, suggesting that consumers are becoming more price-savvy [6]

The economy’s biggest risk may not be tariffs or private credit but the stock market itself, where roughly $9 trillion in equity gains over the past year have powered high-income spending that could quickly reverse if portfolios start flashing red instead of green. “The surge in stock prices is so key to the well-to-do who are driving consumer spending,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “If that gets turned into reverse and we see stock prices decline, then that ...