2026 is the new 2016. If you've been online at all lately, you've probably heard this idea and seen the throwback playlist and arguments over bringing back skinny jeans. Google searches for 2016 aesthetic spiked to all-time highs this year.So, this trend isn't just living on your feed, it's also showing up in real interest. But what if we analyze this 2016 trend from a market perspective. Let's focus on retail because people have to be buying these skinny jeans from somewhere, right.For investors, this soci ...

Core Insights - Overall consumer spending trends remain stable, although there was a deceleration in October, influenced by various factors including tariffs and weather conditions [1][2][3] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending has been uneven throughout 2025, with a tough start to the year due to adverse weather and tariffs, followed by concentrated spending in the summer months [2][3] - October data indicates some volatility in consumer spending, but overall, consumers appear to be managing their expenditures despite challenges [4][5] Category Performance - Spending is occurring across various categories, with consumables like groceries and dollar stores showing stable spending levels despite unit declines due to tariff-induced price increases [5][6] - Categories such as consumer electronics, sporting goods, and home furnishings are performing well, with home furnishings experiencing significant same-store sales growth [6][7] Consumer Sentiment - A recent consumer survey indicated a 10-point increase in consumer concern regarding tariffs, reflecting heightened awareness as the holiday season approaches [8][9] - The upcoming tariffs are expected to impact pricing in retail, which may influence consumer behavior in the near future [9] Investment Opportunities - Walmart is identified as a strong investment opportunity due to its increasing market share and ability to grow margins, particularly in general merchandise categories [10][11] - Costco is also viewed favorably as a stable option, appealing to higher-income consumers and benefiting from its monthly sales model [11][12] - Home improvement retailers like Home Depot are considered interesting plays, especially if demand rebounds with favorable mortgage rates [12][13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total billings were $97.6 million, a 7.3% decrease year-over-year, but above guidance due to pipeline wins in the U.S. and improved delivery [28][27] - Revenue decreased 8.4% to $61.9 million, driven by lower top-line billings and a mix of advertisers [31][27] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $4.4 million, a decline of $4.6 million year-over-year [31] - Free cash flow improved by $11.6 million from the prior year, reaching negative $10.8 million [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. revenue excluding Bridge decreased 10.9% due to lower billings [30] - In the UK, revenue grew by 8.6%, driven by higher billings and increased supply [30] - Bridge revenue increased 1.6% due to new client wins with two major retailers [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer incentives decreased by 5.1% to $35.7 million [31] - The travel category saw a decline due to budget cuts from key accounts, while everyday spend and specialty retail categories showed strength, with specialty retail growing by 52% [28][27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on "platformizing" its business to become a differentiated commerce media platform, enhancing its ecosystem and data capabilities [9][10] - The introduction of the Cardlytics Rewards platform (CRP) aims to expand partnerships beyond financial institutions, allowing any merchant with digital properties to become a publisher partner [12][13] - The company is investing in technology to ease integration processes for partners, aiming for quicker onboarding [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while there is macroeconomic uncertainty, consumer spending remains strong, particularly in everyday categories [5][6] - The company expects continued caution among advertisers, leading to delays in ad spending commitments [37] - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates billings between $100 million and $108 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 9% to 2% [36] Other Important Information - The company introduced a new metric, monthly qualified users (MQUs), which increased by 12% to 214.9 million in Q1 [32][33] - Adjusted contribution per MQU (ACPU) was down 24% year-over-year, reflecting the monetization challenges with the new large FI partner [35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the opportunity presented by the non-FI side of the business? - Management highlighted that the Cardlytics Rewards platform allows for redefining partnerships and expanding the publisher ecosystem, with potential for strong growth [49][50] Question: How does consumer spending compare to last year? - Management indicated that consumer spending remains strong, particularly in everyday categories, with some signs of front-running purchases ahead of tariffs [56][58] Question: What are the economics for Cardlytics with new partners? - Management stated that the platform is moving towards engagement-based pricing, with positive economics expected for both Cardlytics and its publisher partners [62][63] Question: How is the company assessing its billing space amid macro uncertainty? - Management noted that certain categories, like restaurants and retail, tend to perform better in downturns, and they are working closely with advertisers to navigate the environment [72] Question: Can you provide details on the mechanics of the Cardlytics Rewards platform? - Management explained that the CRP expands publishing supply from banks to non-bank merchants, enhancing consumer engagement and value [74]