Core Insights - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) is outperforming the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), indicating strong consumer spending power after basic needs are met [1][2] - The XLY's relative strength has reached above 1.20, the highest since the beginning of the year, suggesting healthy consumer strength [2] - Historical data shows that when the XLY/XLP relative strength exceeds 1.20, it has led to varying stock performance, with short-term returns generally being negative but longer-term returns showing more promise [4][5] Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples - The XLY includes major holdings like Amazon, Tesla, Home Depot, and Booking Holdings, which thrive on discretionary spending [1] - The XLP consists of essential goods providers such as Walmart, Costco, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola, focusing on necessities [1] - The performance of XLY stocks has been better than XLP stocks following signals of relative strength [10] Historical Performance Analysis - In the short term, the S&P 500 averaged a loss of 0.82% over the next month after XLY/XLP signals, with only 33% of returns positive [5] - Over three months, the S&P 500 gained an average of 0.44%, with 44% of returns positive, compared to a typical return of 1.82% [5] - Longer-term returns (6-month and 12-month) show average returns of 3.52% and 10.82% respectively, indicating a more favorable outlook [5] Individual Signal Performance - The last five signals have resulted in positive S&P 500 returns every time over the next year, with a minimum return of 11.8% and an average of 26% [7] - Historical data from 1999 shows that the average returns for the XLY after signals are generally higher than those for the XLP [10] Returns After Signals - XLY returns after signals show an average of 0.66% for 1-month, 0.41% for 3-month, 4.15% for 6-month, and 15.42% for 12-month periods [11] - XLP returns after signals indicate an average of -0.48% for 1-month, -1.39% for 3-month, 2.16% for 6-month, and 8.95% for 12-month periods [12]

Core Insights - Walmart reported fiscal Q4 2025 earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $180.55 billion, slightly exceeding Wall Street's revenue expectations but falling short of the whisper earnings forecast of $0.68 per share [2][4] - Earnings increased by 10% compared to the same quarter last year, while sales rose by 4%, indicating resilience despite tariff concerns and recession fears [2][11] - Analysts had anticipated earnings of $0.65 per share on revenue of $179.42 billion, making the revenue growth a positive sign for the company [4] Forward Estimates - Walmart projects Q1 2025 earnings between $0.57 and $0.58 per share, with revenue expected between $166.35 billion and $167.97 billion [5] - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates earnings of $2.50 to $2.60 per share on revenue ranging from $701.4 billion to $708.2 billion, reflecting confidence in its performance amid economic challenges [5] Company Profile - Walmart operates as a tech-enabled omnichannel retailer, focusing on helping customers save money and live better through various shopping channels [6] - The company has three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club, and offers a wide range of products including groceries, health and wellness items, and consumer electronics [6][7][8][9] - Walmart was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas, having changed its name from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. in February 2018 [10]