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大中华区媒体 - 行业变迁与估值调整-Greater China Media-Industry Shifts and Valuation Adjustments
2025-10-14 14:44
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **SMID (small-mid cap) Internet/Media sector in China** and reflects recent secular changes in the industry [2][4]. Key Companies and Ratings - **Damai**: Maintained an Overweight (OW) rating; price target raised from HK$0.58 to HK$1.20, reflecting a 107% increase [3][15]. - **37 Interactive Entertainment (37IE)**: Maintained OW rating; price target increased from RMB 23.00 to RMB 25.90, a 13% rise [4][15]. - **Maoyan**: Downgraded from OW to Equal-weight (EW); price target adjusted from HK$7.50 to HK$8.00, a 7% increase [6][15]. - **JOYY**: Maintained EW rating; price target raised from US$40.00 to US$62.00, a 55% increase [4][15]. - **IQIYI**: Maintained EW rating; price target increased from US$2.10 to US$2.30, a 10% rise [4][15]. - **Focus Media**: Preferred over Weibo due to expected growth from self-help initiatives [6]. Core Insights - **IP Derivatives Demand**: There is a growing demand for IP derivatives in China, with Damai positioned to benefit from its domestic sub-licensing business [3]. - **Long Video and Live-Streaming**: These sectors are entering a more favorable policy environment, with valuations currently below historical levels. Price targets for JOYY and HUYA have been lifted due to improving trends [4]. - **Gaming Sector**: Smaller game companies are experiencing a re-rating due to successful new titles, leading to raised earnings forecasts for 2025/26 [5]. - **Film Industry Challenges**: Film companies may face difficulties in re-rating due to muted industry growth and weaker visibility for fundamentals, leading to downgrades for Maoyan and others [6]. Additional Insights - **Branding Advertising**: The branding advertising industry is not expected to recover immediately, but Focus Media is seen as a better investment compared to Weibo due to its strategic initiatives [6]. - **Valuation Adjustments**: The report includes various valuation adjustments for companies based on earnings revisions and shifts to sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methods [15]. Market Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock price performance over different time frames, indicating significant variances in performance among the companies covered [12]. Conclusion - The SMID Internet/Media sector in China is undergoing significant changes, with varying growth prospects across different segments. Companies like Damai and 37IE are favored for their growth potential, while challenges remain for the film industry and certain live-streaming platforms.