Core Insights - Saia, Inc. experienced a decline in stock price as investors assessed mixed fourth-quarter freight trends against the company's long-term national expansion strategy [1] - The company reported a decrease in October LTL shipments and tonnage per workday year over year, while November showed a rise in shipments and tonnage, but a decline in weight per shipment compared to last year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Bank of America Securities analyst Ken Hoexter maintained a Neutral rating on Saia, raising the price forecast from $322 to $367, indicating confidence in the company's long-term growth trajectory [2][5] - Saia's mid-fourth-quarter update revealed sub-seasonal tons per day, with October's weakness offsetting November's strength, and expectations for a softer December [2][5] - The operating ratio target for the fourth quarter was maintained, with expectations of a larger seasonal deterioration than historical averages [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Saia's largest revenue market, Los Angeles, saw a nearly 20% year-over-year decline in volumes, with growth primarily from shorter, lower-revenue lanes as the company expands nationally [3] - Customers are discussing 2026 contract levels with more certainty due to stabilizing tax policy, interest rates, and tariff expectations [4] - Despite tightening truckload capacity conditions, there has been no significant freight shifting from truckload to LTL, attributed to regulatory enforcement and rising carrier bankruptcies [4] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings - The valuation of Saia is slightly above its five-year range, reflecting its transition into a national carrier supported by improving yields and network integration, including the addition of 39 new terminals since 2022 [6] - Earnings expectations remain unchanged, with fourth-quarter 2025 EPS projected at $1.88 and 2026 EPS at $11.10 [6]