Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns, indicating a systematic approach to technical analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is experiencing a bullish trend after a bearish year, with a 5.5% rally in a month, but its sustainability remains uncertain [1] Market Dynamics - Nickel prices fell significantly, reaching as low as $14,600 per ton last month, leading to major Western producers shutting down operations due to oversupply and battery substitution concerns [1][4] - The demand for stainless steel and electric vehicles (EVs) initially drove nickel production from 800,000 metric tons in 2019 to 2.2 million in 2024, resulting in a structural surplus [3][4] - The International Nickel Study Group projected a surplus of 179,000 tons in 2024, increasing to 198,000 tons in 2025, with LME warehouse inventories exceeding 254,000 tons [4] Demand Trends - Demand for nickel-rich battery chemistries is growing slowly, with nickel-free LFP batteries increasing by 7% year-on-year compared to just 1% for nickel-bearing batteries by late 2024 [5] - Policy changes, such as the repeal of the US$7,500 EV tax credit, have negatively impacted EV sales and sentiment [5] Supply Chain Risks - Indonesia dominates nickel production, accounting for over half of global output in 2025, but this concentration poses systemic risks due to environmental concerns and reliance on coal power [6][7] - Australia's nickel production has significantly declined from over 150,000 tons to about 60,000 tons due to high operational costs compared to Indonesia [8] Future Outlook - Nickel's demand outlook remains in the mid-single digits, with expectations of doubling battery demand by 2030 despite the LFP trend [10] - A potential shift from surplus to deficit in the late 2020s is anticipated, driven by the continued reliance on nickel-rich chemistries for high-performance EVs [11] - The market faces risks from Indonesia's continued output growth and the rapid adoption of alternative battery technologies [12] Investment Perspective - Nickel is viewed as a deep-value contrarian commodity, with potential for rebalancing despite current oversupply and dependence on a politically complex supplier [13]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by rapid changes and significant developments, exemplified by Novo Nordisk's introduction of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and Eli Lilly's competitive offerings [1][3] - Novo Nordisk has received approval for a GLP-1 pill, expected to launch in early 2026, which could restore its leadership position in the market [4][6] - The market dynamics are influenced by the performance of established companies like Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, and Pfizer, which may present contrarian investment opportunities [2][7] Company Developments - Novo Nordisk's stock experienced a surge following the approval of its GLP-1 pill, although it remains over 50% below its peak value [6] - Eli Lilly has taken the lead in the GLP-1 market, showcasing the competitive nature of the pharmaceutical sector [7] - The approval of the GLP-1 pill by Novo Nordisk could significantly impact the weight loss drug market and the company's market position [3][4] Market Trends - The pharmaceutical sector is marked by innovation and competition, with companies frequently shifting in and out of favor based on drug portfolios and patent timelines [5] - Pfizer's high dividend yield of 6.8% is seen as risky due to its payout ratio exceeding 100%, indicating caution for income investors [7] - The evolving landscape of GLP-1 drugs highlights the potential for significant shifts in market leadership among pharmaceutical companies [1][6]

分组1 - Sirius XM was last analyzed in August following their Q2 earnings results, with a recommendation to buy based on a favorable dividend yield compared to the sector [1] - The company has shown a commitment to returning value to investors, which aligns with the investment philosophy of seeking underappreciated companies [1] 分组2 - The article emphasizes the importance of analyzing past performance as a factor in investment decisions, although it does not guarantee future results [3]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Insights - The investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The investment strategy involves identifying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Investment Strategy - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after a recent sell-off to ensure credibility [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but may also invest in companies from less stable economies [1]