Quick Read Southern Copper (SCCO) expects 2026 revenues of $16B up 17% and produced record 2025 sales of $13.42B. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) beat Q4 earnings at $0.47 per share. Revenues of $5.63B exceeded expectations by 9%. Global copper deficit expected at 320,000 tons in 2026. Inventories stand at just 14 days of demand. Investors rethink 'hands off' investing and decide to start making real money Billionaire mining executive Robert Friedland addressed the USC Marshall Energy Business Summit back i ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global copper market is shifting from a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025 to a potential deficit of 150,000 tons due to supply struggles against rising demand [1] - Mine output is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, but this will not compensate for disruptions in key producing countries like Chile and Indonesia [2] - Demand growth from Asia and energy transition sectors is anticipated to remain strong, further tightening the copper market [2] Group 2: Price Trends - Copper prices have been rising due to supply constraints and a weaker U.S. dollar, although the rally has been less pronounced compared to precious metals [3][4] - Morgan Stanley projects an average copper price of $4.83 per pound in 2026, which is consistent with current levels but above the year-to-date average [5] Group 3: Company Insights - Freeport-McMoRan's shares fell over 15% following the Grasberg tragedy, which halted output and could lead to significant reductions in supply forecasts for 2026 [5] - Southern Copper Corp. has been upgraded to Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley, with a mid-2026 price target of $132 per share, highlighting its copper exposure and dividend potential [5] Group 4: Exploration and Investment Challenges - The copper mining sector faces challenges due to years of underinvestment, with exploration budgets at multi-decade lows and permitting delays extending project timelines [6] - The International Energy Agency warns that without new discoveries, annual copper output could drop below 20 million tons, while demand is projected to approach 33 million tons [6] Group 5: Industry Consolidation - Major sector consolidations, such as the $53 billion merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, may not effectively resolve supply issues, as newly enlarged miners may focus on high-return assets rather than increasing total output [7]