Summary of Key Points from Copper Expert Call with SMM Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Industry in China - **Date of Call**: October 23, 2025 - **Participants**: Mr. Ye Jianhua, Chief Copper Analyst at SMM Key Takeaways Copper Price Outlook - SMM indicates that the downstream sector is inclined to restock as copper prices in China have decreased to Rmb82-83k/t due to low inventory levels [1][2] - The average copper price is projected to be Rmb83.5-84k/t in 2026E, compared to Rmb80.5k/t in 2025E, which is considered conservative given the downstream pushback [1][2] - Spot prices could potentially reach approximately Rmb90k/t [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper concentrate output is expected to increase by over 600kt YoY in 2026E [3] - China's copper cathode output is anticipated to rise by 1.3-1.35 million tonnes (mnt) YoY in 2025E and by 600-620kt in 2026E, with limited production cuts expected [3] - Both global copper cathode supply and consumption are projected to grow by 3-3.5% YoY in 2026E, despite tight supply conditions [3] Recycling Copper Policy - Crude copper capacity from scrap is primarily located in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, affected by regulatory concerns [4] - The output impact from recycling copper products was estimated at 50-60kt in August and 20kt per month in September and October due to policy uncertainties [4] Consumption Trends in China - Copper consumption in China was weak in September and October 2025, particularly in the power segment and home appliances, attributed to high copper prices [5] - Negative YoY growth in copper consumption is expected for September-October 2025 due to a high base in Q4 2024 [5] International Market Dynamics - Overseas copper traders are showing willingness to purchase copper amid concerns over production cuts in international smelting capacity [5] - SMM expects continued shipments of copper to the US market due to the premium of Comex copper prices over LME [7] Additional Insights - The transition from aluminum to copper in power and home appliances is expected to be slow despite high copper prices, due to low fault tolerance [8] - Global copper demand from the data center industry is projected to reach 500-600kt in 2025E, with an increase of 250-300kt YoY in subsequent years [9] Conclusion The copper industry in China is experiencing a complex interplay of price dynamics, supply and demand shifts, and regulatory impacts. The outlook suggests cautious optimism with potential price increases, but challenges remain in consumption and recycling policies.