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Client Update August 2025: A Tariff Update
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-09-11 01:05
Economic Impact of Tariffs - The economic fallout from Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements has been milder than expected, with no immediate signs of empty store shelves or significant inflation increases [2][3] - Recent job data revisions indicate a downward trend, with May and June job gains revised to under 20,000, while the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July [3][4] - The stability observed in economic indicators does not equate to strength, and experts caution against assuming this stability will continue [4][5] Tariff Implementation and Corporate Resilience - Tariffs have not been implemented as aggressively as initially announced, with many exemptions and delays introduced [5][6] - Strong corporate balance sheets have provided a buffer against the economic impact of tariffs, making the U.S. economy more shock-resistant [6] - The effects of tariffs take time to materialize, as companies like Rock City Coffee and Procter & Gamble have begun raising prices due to increased costs [7][9] Corporate Responses to Tariffs - Companies like General Motors and Ford are absorbing tariff costs, leading to significant financial impacts, including projected losses of $4-5 billion for GM by 2025 [9][10] - The current tariff policy is seen as reactive and inconsistent, disadvantaging many American companies while failing to align with their economic realities [10][11] Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Despite the tariff impacts, equity prices remain strong, with companies absorbing costs or passing them on to consumers [12][13] - The market's response may not be rational, with signs of froth in credit markets, emphasizing the need for selectivity in investment [13][14] Company Performance Highlights - Amazon reported strong Q2 performance with earnings per share of $1.68, revenue of $167.7 billion, and AWS revenue growth of 17% [16][18] - Google maintained a stable search engine market share and reported a 12% increase in search revenue, alongside strong performance in its cloud and YouTube segments [19][21] - Novo Nordisk faced challenges due to competition from illegal alternatives to its weight loss drug, leading to lowered sales growth guidance [22][23]