I'm at about 30 years persevering as a “professional bear.” My lucky break came in late-1989, when I was hired by Gordon Ringoen to be the trader for his short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco. Working as a short-side trader, analyst and portfolio manager during the great nineties bull market – for one of the most brilliant individuals I’ve met – was an exciting, demanding and, in the end, a grueling and absolutely invaluable learning experience. Later in the nineties, I had stints at Fleckenstein Capital ...

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a short-side trader and analyst, which has shaped their understanding of market dynamics and macroeconomic trends [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The individual began their career in late 1989 as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund, gaining valuable experience during a significant bull market [1] - They have worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and spent 16 years with PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management [1] - Their early career included a role as a treasury analyst at Toyota during critical economic periods, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The individual emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic forces, inspired by Austrian economics and historical economic analysis [1] - They believe that significant developments in finance and policymaking are often overlooked by conventional analysis and media [1] - The individual aims to provide contemporaneous analysis to highlight these developments, drawing parallels to historical economic writings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's extensive experience in the investment industry, particularly focusing on short-selling strategies and macroeconomic analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding current financial developments and their implications for the market [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The individual has approximately 30 years of experience as a "professional bear," starting in late 1989 as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund [1] - The author worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and had a significant tenure at PrudentBear from January 1999 to the end of 2014 [1] - Prior to entering the investment field, the author served as a treasury analyst at Toyota during critical economic periods, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] Group 2: Influences and Insights - The author was influenced by Dr. Richebacher's writings, which introduced Austrian economics and fostered a passion for macroeconomic analysis [1] - The author believes that significant developments in finance and policymaking are often overlooked by conventional analysis and media, leading to the creation of the Credit Bubble Bulletin to highlight these issues [1] - The article references the importance of contemporaneous analysis, drawing parallels to historical economic writings during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" for approximately 30 years, indicating a focus on short-selling strategies and market downturns [1] - The career began in late 1989 with a short-biased hedge fund, highlighting a significant entry point into the industry during a bull market [1] - The individual has held various roles, including trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, which contributed to a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics [1] Career Highlights - The individual worked at notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, showcasing a diverse professional background [1] - A significant tenure at PrudentBear lasted 16 years, where the individual served as a strategist and portfolio manager, indicating a long-term commitment to bearish investment strategies [1] - Early career experiences included a treasury analyst position at Toyota during critical economic periods, which fostered a passion for macroeconomic analysis [1] Influences and Philosophy - The individual was influenced by Dr. Richebacher's writings on Austrian economics, which shaped a lifelong interest in economics and macro analysis [1] - The desire to highlight unrecognized developments in finance and policymaking led to the creation of the Credit Bubble Bulletin, emphasizing the importance of contemporaneous analysis [1] - The individual draws parallels between current economic conditions and historical events, suggesting that understanding the current global Bubble period is crucial for future economic insights [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a short-side trader and analyst, which has shaped their understanding of market dynamics and macroeconomic analysis [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The individual began their career in late 1989 as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund, gaining valuable experience during a significant bull market [1] - They have worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and spent 16 years with PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management [1] - Their early career included a role as a treasury analyst at Toyota during critical economic periods, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] Group 2: Economic Philosophy - The individual was influenced by Austrian economics through the writings of Dr. Richebacher, which deepened their passion for economics and macro analysis [1] - They believe that significant developments in finance and policymaking are often overlooked by conventional analysis and media, prompting them to start a blog to highlight these issues [1] - The individual draws parallels between current economic conditions and historical events, emphasizing the importance of understanding the current global economic bubble [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" for approximately 30 years, indicating a focus on short-selling strategies [1] - The career began in 1989 with a hedge fund in San Francisco, leading to various roles in different firms, highlighting a diverse background in trading and portfolio management [1] - The influence of Austrian economics and macro analysis is emphasized, showcasing a commitment to understanding economic cycles and market dynamics [1] Career Highlights - Initial role as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund in 1989, which provided significant learning experiences during a bull market [1] - Worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, indicating a strong professional network [1] - A 16-year tenure with PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management, which ended in 2014 [1] Educational Background - Graduated summa cum laude from the University of Oregon with majors in Accounting and Finance in 1984, followed by an MBA from Indiana University in 1989 [1] - Early career included a position as a treasury analyst at Toyota during significant economic events, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] Analytical Philosophy - The individual believes in the importance of contemporaneous analysis, drawing parallels to historical economic writings, particularly during the Roaring Twenties and Great Depression [1] - Emphasizes the need to understand current global economic conditions, referring to them as an extraordinary "Bubble period" [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" for approximately 30 years, indicating a focus on short-selling strategies [1] - The career began in late 1989 with a short-biased hedge fund, highlighting a long-standing commitment to macroeconomic analysis and investment strategies [1] - The individual has worked with notable firms and figures in the industry, including PrudentBear and Dr. Richebacher, which emphasizes a strong foundation in economic theory and market analysis [1] Career Highlights - The individual was hired as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund in San Francisco in late 1989, marking the start of a significant career in finance [1] - Experience includes roles at Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, showcasing a diverse background in investment management [1] - A 16-year tenure at PrudentBear as a strategist and portfolio manager, concluding in 2014, reflects a long-term commitment to analyzing market trends and economic conditions [1] Educational Background - Graduated summa cum laude from the University of Oregon with majors in Accounting and Finance in 1984, followed by an MBA from Indiana University in 1989, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance [1] - Early career included working as a treasury analyst at Toyota during significant economic events, which fostered a passion for macro analysis [1] Analytical Philosophy - The individual emphasizes the importance of contemporaneous analysis, inspired by historical economic writings, suggesting a belief in the value of understanding current market dynamics [1] - The perspective on the current global economic environment as a "Bubble period" indicates a critical view of prevailing market conditions and a focus on identifying underlying risks [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" trader and analyst, which has shaped their understanding of market dynamics and macroeconomic trends [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The individual began their career in late 1989 as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund, gaining valuable experience during a significant bull market [1] - They have worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and had a long tenure at PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management [1] - Their early career included a role as a treasury analyst at Toyota during critical economic periods, which sparked a passion for macro analysis [1] Group 2: Economic Philosophy - The individual was influenced by Austrian economics through the works of Dr. Richebacher, which deepened their interest in macroeconomic analysis [1] - They believe that significant developments in finance and policymaking are often overlooked by conventional analysis and media, prompting them to start a blog to highlight these issues [1] - The individual draws parallels between current economic conditions and historical events, emphasizing the importance of understanding the current global Bubble period [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a short-side trader and analyst, which has shaped their understanding of macroeconomic trends and financial markets [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The individual began their career in late 1989 as a trader for a short-biased hedge fund, gaining valuable experience during a significant bull market [1] - They have worked with notable firms such as Fleckenstein Capital and East Shore Partners, and spent 16 years with PrudentBear, focusing on strategy and portfolio management [1] - Prior to entering the investment field, they worked as a treasury analyst at Toyota during critical economic periods, which sparked their interest in macro analysis [1] Group 2: Economic Philosophy - The individual was influenced by Austrian economics through the works of Dr. Richebacher, which solidified their passion for economic and macro analysis [1] - They believe that significant developments in finance and policymaking are often overlooked by conventional analysis and media, prompting them to start a blog to highlight these issues [1] - The individual draws parallels between current economic conditions and historical events, emphasizing the importance of understanding the current global Bubble period [1]

Core Insights - The individual has extensive experience in the investment banking sector, particularly as a "professional bear" for approximately 30 years, indicating a focus on short-selling strategies [1] - The career includes significant roles at various hedge funds and a strong foundation in macroeconomic analysis, influenced by Austrian economics [1] - The establishment of a blog, the Credit Bubble Bulletin, reflects a commitment to providing contemporaneous analysis of financial developments that are often overlooked by mainstream media [1] Group 1 - The individual began their career as a treasury analyst at Toyota during significant economic events, which sparked an interest in macro analysis [1] - The experience in the nineties bull market as a trader and analyst provided invaluable learning opportunities, highlighting the importance of market cycles [1] - The individual has a strong academic background, graduating summa cum laude in Accounting and Finance and later obtaining an MBA, which supports their analytical capabilities [1] Group 2 - The individual emphasizes the importance of understanding current global financial bubbles, suggesting that insights from historical economic events can inform present-day analysis [1] - The reference to Benjamin Anderson's writings indicates a belief in the value of historical context in economic analysis, particularly during periods of significant financial change [1] - The individual’s work with Dr. Richebacher and the influence of Austrian economics underscore a commitment to exploring unconventional economic theories and their implications for investment strategies [1]