Core Viewpoint - President Trump's proposals to lower mortgage rates and cap credit card interest rates may not effectively improve affordability for consumers and could potentially lead to adverse economic consequences [1][2]. Mortgage Rates - Trump plans to direct representatives to purchase $200 billion of mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates [2]. - Following the announcement, fixed mortgage rates have decreased by 10 to 20 basis points, which could increase housing demand but also drive home prices up due to a severe housing shortage [6][7]. - The economist Mark Zandi warns that while lower rates may seem beneficial, they will not make homebuying more affordable as higher demand will lead to increased home prices [7]. Credit Card Interest Rates - Trump's proposal includes capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, which Zandi believes may face legal challenges and could limit credit availability for many borrowers [9]. - Zandi argues that only consumers with high credit scores would maintain their credit lines, as lenders would struggle to profitably extend credit at the proposed rate [9]. - Analysts at UBS and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman share concerns that capping credit card interest rates could negatively impact lower-income consumers and overall economic spending [10].

Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]