Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices have recently increased, with May NY world sugar 11 closing up by +0.02 (+0.14%) and May London ICE white sugar 5 closing up by +5.90 (+1.45%) due to rising crude oil prices, which may lead to a shift in production from sugar to ethanol [1] Global Sugar Surplus Forecasts - Analysts from Czarnikow predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [2] - Green Pool Commodity Specialists expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27 [2] - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26 [2] International Sugar Organization (ISO) Projections - The ISO has revised its forecast for a sugar surplus in 2025-26 to +1.22 MMT, down from +1.63 MMT, following a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [3] Brazil's Sugar Production Trends - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South region fell by -36% year-on-year in the second half of January to only 5,000 MT, although cumulative production through January is up by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [4] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar increased to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25 [4] - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado projects Brazil's sugar production will decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT in 2026/27 from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [5] India's Sugar Production Insights - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported a +12% year-on-year increase in India's sugar output to 24.75 MMT for the period from October 1 to February 28 [6] - ISMA projects India's total sugar production for 2025/26 at 29.3 MMT, which is a +12% increase year-on-year but lower than the previous estimate of 30.95 MMT [6] - The estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India has been reduced to 3.4 MMT from an earlier forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [6]