The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose by 1 this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published earlier this week, bringing the total rig count in the US  to 546 this week, down 43 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs rose by 3 in the reporting period for the second week in a row, according to the data. Oil rigs are now at 412, which is 70 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 2 to 125, which is 22 more t ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical headlines have caused volatility in oil markets, but the fundamental view remains unchanged [2][3] - Russia's crude oil production has been flat to slightly down this year, despite increased OPEC+ targets, indicating near-capacity production [3][4] - A ceasefire and sanctions relief may not necessarily lead to increased Russian oil production [4] Price Outlook - Barclays maintains a Brent crude oil outlook of $66 per barrel for next year on average [4] - The forward curve for crude oil is sitting at $62 per barrel, with Barclays' forecast only $4 ahead [11] Demand Side - China's oil demand is up 400,000 barrels per day for the first 10 months of this year [7] - This exceeds the forecast of 280,000 barrels per day for the full year, driven by strong industrial activity despite EV adoption [7][8] Refining Margins - Attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure have boosted refining margins significantly [6] - A ceasefire could potentially lower refining margins due to a pause in these attacks [6] - Limited spare refining capacity outside of China contributes to higher refined product cracks [12] Consumer Impact - A 17% (17 per 1,000) surplus per day is factored into the price for next year [10] - A ceasefire could potentially provide some respite for end consumers in the US [12]

Core Insights - New Mexico's crude oil production reached a record high of 2.26 million barrels per day in March [1] Industry Summary - The increase in production marks a significant milestone for New Mexico, indicating robust growth in the state's oil sector [1] - This record production level reflects the ongoing expansion and investment in oil extraction technologies and infrastructure within the region [1]

Core Insights - Texas crude oil production increased to 5.71 million barrels per day in March, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1] Industry Summary - The rise in Texas oil production indicates a significant recovery in the state's output, which may impact overall U.S. oil supply dynamics [1]