Russia pumped an average of 9.28 million barrels a day of crude oil last month https://t.co/JH5NhPchF0 ...

Group 1: Rig Count and Production Data - The total number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 1 this week, bringing the total to 546, which is down by 43 from the same time last year [1] - The number of active oil rigs rose by 3 to 412, which is 70 below the same time last year, while gas rigs fell by 2 to 125, which is 22 more than last year [2] - The number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin remained at 247, which is 57 rigs lower than a year ago, and the Eagle Ford count decreased by 1 to 40, which is 5 fewer than last year [5] Group 2: Crude Oil Production Trends - U.S. crude oil production slightly increased by 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 13.827 million bpd, just 26,000 bpd below the all-time high reached three weeks ago [3] - Despite fewer rigs operating compared to last year, U.S. crude production remains close to recent highs, with weekly output largely stable over the past month [4]

Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical headlines have caused volatility in oil markets, but the fundamental view remains unchanged [2][3] - Russia's crude oil production has been flat to slightly down this year, despite increased OPEC+ targets, indicating near-capacity production [3][4] - A ceasefire and sanctions relief may not necessarily lead to increased Russian oil production [4] Price Outlook - Barclays maintains a Brent crude oil outlook of $66 per barrel for next year on average [4] - The forward curve for crude oil is sitting at $62 per barrel, with Barclays' forecast only $4 ahead [11] Demand Side - China's oil demand is up 400,000 barrels per day for the first 10 months of this year [7] - This exceeds the forecast of 280,000 barrels per day for the full year, driven by strong industrial activity despite EV adoption [7][8] Refining Margins - Attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure have boosted refining margins significantly [6] - A ceasefire could potentially lower refining margins due to a pause in these attacks [6] - Limited spare refining capacity outside of China contributes to higher refined product cracks [12] Consumer Impact - A 17% (17 per 1,000) surplus per day is factored into the price for next year [10] - A ceasefire could potentially provide some respite for end consumers in the US [12]

Core Insights - New Mexico's crude oil production reached a record high of 2.26 million barrels per day in March [1] Industry Summary - The increase in production marks a significant milestone for New Mexico, indicating robust growth in the state's oil sector [1] - This record production level reflects the ongoing expansion and investment in oil extraction technologies and infrastructure within the region [1]

Core Insights - Texas crude oil production increased to 5.71 million barrels per day in March, marking the highest level since November 2024 [1] Industry Summary - The rise in Texas oil production indicates a significant recovery in the state's output, which may impact overall U.S. oil supply dynamics [1]