Technical Analysis - The 50-day moving average at $58.59 is controlling the trend, with several failed rallies indicating a downtrend characterized by lower tops and bottoms [1] - The short-term range is identified between $54.98 and $58.88, with key levels at $56.93 (50%) and $56.47 (61.8%), which are currently influencing near-term direction [2] - A breakout above the swing top at $58.88 could lead to a move into the retracement zone of $60.70 to $62.05, while a sustained break below this week's low risks the December 16 bottom at $54.98 [3] Market Fundamentals - Prices have stabilized after volatility, as investors assess the impact of developments in Venezuela and a significant build in U.S. fuel inventories [4] - Supply concerns are heightened due to the U.S. taking control of Venezuela's oil exports, which may lead to increased U.S. stockpiles, alongside rising U.S. refined product inventories that are capping price gains [5] - The Trump administration's deal with Venezuela for up to $2 billion of domestic crude has led analysts at Morgan Stanley to predict a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026 [6]