Cotton futures close the Tuesday session with contracts down 68 to 71 points in the nearbys. The US dollar index was back up $0.513 on Tuesday to $98.312, with crude oil 36 cents/barrel higher. The Seam showed 633 bales sold at an average price of 60.70 cents/lb on October 6. The Cotlook A Index was back up 20 points on Monday to 76.65 cents. ICE cotton stocks were unchanged on 10/3, with the certified stocks level at 17,891 bales. More News from Barchart Oct 25 Cotton  closed at 62.02, down 68 points, ...

Oil Production & Supply - OPEC Plus increased oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1] - Total phased-in increase since April is approximately 192% million barrels per day, close to the original target of 220% million barrels [1] - Increased supply puts downward pressure on crude prices [1] Market Dynamics & Demand - Lackluster US fuel demand contributes to downward pressure on crude prices [1] - Weak US jobs report intensifies expectations of weaker consumer and industrial demand for energy [1] - Tariff uncertainty hampers investment and potentially delays projects, especially in green energy storage and renewables [2] Potential Risks & Opportunities - Potential crude oil oversupply and more price weakness are possible [2] - Price weakness may offset some energy supply chain pressures caused by tariffs [2]

Market Sentiment & Geopolitics - The market is currently overlooking geopolitical risks, inflation, and potential trade wars [12] - Market participants believe current uncertainty levels are manageable [5] - Closing the straits would be a significant market-moving event impacting crude oil and the S&P [2] Oil Price & Inflation - Oil prices are crucial for managing inflation and potentially enabling interest rate cuts [4] - A jump in Brent or WTI crude oil prices impacting consumer spending could negatively affect the market [3] - Crude oil being down 6% was unexpected given recent events [1] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The Fed's actions are currently more influential than other factors [7][8] - The market anticipates the Fed stepping in and potentially moving towards rate cuts, benefiting sectors that would gain from such a move [8][9] - Some voices suggest rate cuts may come sooner and be more frequent than previously anticipated [12] - The Fed seems comfortable with PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) at 31%, until the labor market weakens [7] - There's a possibility of yields approaching 5% due to ongoing concerns, even if the market is currently disregarding them [14]