Core Viewpoint - Global crude oil prices are expected to decline significantly in 2026, with Brent crude projected to reach around USD 50 per barrel by June 2026, driven by rising inventories and softer global trends [1][2]. Crude Oil Price Outlook - The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Brent crude prices could average USD 55 per barrel in Q1 2026, primarily due to inventory buildup exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The Indian crude basket, which has a strong correlation of 0.98 with Brent crude, is anticipated to follow a similar softening trend [2]. Indian Basket Impact - Movements in Brent crude prices indicate a potential easing in the Indian crude basket, which is currently trending below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, suggesting lower prices ahead from the current level of USD 62.20 per barrel [3]. - The expected decline in the Indian basket price to USD 53.31 per barrel will be reflected in retail fuel prices due to the dynamic daily pricing mechanism [6]. Inflation Dynamics - A projected 14% correction in the Indian basket in Q4 FY26 could lead to a downward pressure of approximately 22 basis points on the CPI basket, assuming a 48% passthrough [7]. - This moderation is expected to lower average CPI inflation for FY27 below 3.4%, providing significant relief on the inflation front [4][7].

Core Insights - Gasoline prices are decreasing as the Thanksgiving travel weekend begins, with the national average slightly above $3 per gallon, while over half of US states have prices below this mark, and some stations offering prices as low as $1.99 [1][2][3] Price Trends - The national average gasoline price was $3.05 per gallon on Tuesday, remaining stable compared to the same time last year [1][4] - Coastal states like California and Washington have prices exceeding $4 per gallon, while more than 28 states, primarily in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, report averages below $3 per gallon [2] Factors Influencing Prices - Seasonal demand reduction, cheaper winter blends, and declining oil prices are expected to exert continued downward pressure on gasoline costs [2] - Crude oil prices have been on a downward trend, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures declining by over 2% amid ongoing peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [5] Future Expectations - Analysts predict that gasoline prices may remain at or below $3 per gallon for the remainder of the year, with the potential for some of the lowest prices seen in the last four years [3][4] - The current period is considered the most challenging for US gasoline prices this season, with crude liquidation linked to the Ukraine/Russia peace initiative [5]