China’s accelerated crude stock builds in 2025 may come in handy at the end of this year as global oil flows are being redirected again in the wake of the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil firms. China, the biggest buyer of Russian crude, has a cushion to soften the blow from the sanctions, although it’s unlikely it would halt its imports from Russia. But the stockpiles in China, estimated at between 1.2 billion and 1.3 billion barrels in strategic and commercial reserves, have put a floor under oil pri ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined due to signals that OPEC+ will increase production in November, tempering a previous strong rally [1][2] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ is considering raising output by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November, as indicated by sources familiar with the plans [1][2] - Analysts from RBC Capital Markets view a repeat of the 137,000-barrel-a-day increase as the most likely outcome from the upcoming meeting on October 5 [2] - Many producers, excluding Saudi Arabia, have reached their production capacity limits, suggesting that future OPEC+ supply increases will be lower than announced figures [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite OPEC+ pursuing a strategy to reclaim market share rather than managing prices, crude oil remains on track for monthly and quarterly gains [4] - Robust buying for stockpiling in China and geopolitical tensions, such as Ukraine's strikes against Moscow's energy infrastructure, have supported oil prices [4] Group 3: Future Projections - The International Energy Agency has projected a record oversupply in 2026 as OPEC+ continues to revive production and supply from rivals increases [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude prices falling to the mid-$50s per barrel next year, despite ongoing crude stockpiling in China [5] Group 4: Regional Developments - In Iraq, crude oil flows via a pipeline from the northern region to Turkey have resumed after a halt of over two years, indicating a recovery in exports [6]