Core Insights - The crypto market downturn has significantly impacted Coinbase, with its stock dropping over 50% since early October, including a 27% decline in 2026 alone [1] - JPMorgan's Ken Worthington has reduced his price target for Coinbase to $290 from $399, indicating a potential 75% upside from the current price of $165.5 [2] Financial Projections - Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for the upcoming quarter, down from $801 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to lower trading volumes and weaker crypto prices [2] - Spot crypto trading volume is estimated at $263 billion for the quarter, with stablecoin-related revenue projected at $312 million due to lower USDC circulation [3] Revenue Estimates - Total transaction revenue, including contributions from Deribit, is modeled at $1.06 billion, with Deribit expected to contribute approximately $117 million from an estimated $586 billion in trading volume [4] - Subscription and services revenue is expected to be $670 million, below Coinbase's prior guidance of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices and lower staking yields [5] Analyst Opinions - Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish estimates adjusted EBITDA to be about 10% below consensus, citing weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue [6] - Barclays estimates Coinbase's exchange volume at approximately $261 billion for the quarter, noting a 15% quarter-over-quarter decline in retail crypto volumes reported by Robinhood [7] - Compass Point analyst Ed Engel expresses a bearish outlook, anticipating disappointment in the subscription and services segment and suggesting that overall revenue remains closely tied to crypto prices [8]