Market Overview - Bitcoin fell to a six-month low of $91,545, breaching key support levels, while Ethereum dropped below $3,000, indicating widespread market weakness [1] - Bitcoin lost 3.21% on November 17, down 27% from its October all-time high, and Ethereum fell 4.22% to $2,978, with major altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano experiencing significant declines [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 61.70 points to 6,672.41 and the Nasdaq falling 192.51 points to 22,708.07, both closing below their 50-day moving averages [3] Technical Analysis - A significant technical event occurred as Bitcoin filled the last large CME futures gap near $92,000, which had been open since April 2025, typically indicating a removal of technical overhang [5] - Despite the closure of the CME gap, weak demand may lead to further declines, and the overall technical picture remains fragile [6] - Traders are at a crossroads, with the gap closure reducing immediate risk but ongoing weak price action suggesting potential for further downward movement [7] Economic Indicators - Broader economic signals contributed to market stress, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index rising to 18.7, an increase of 8 points from the previous month, which reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [8] - Market probabilities shifted, with Polymarket indicating a 55% chance of no rate cut and CME Group data suggesting a 60% chance of unchanged policy [9] - Research firm 10X Research noted that new buyer activity stalled around October 10, with the Fed's hawkish signals adding pressure and warning of vulnerability to further liquidations [9]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Bitcoin has entered a bear market, down over 20% from its all-time high of $126,272 reached in October, and has fallen below $100,000 [1] - Major Bitcoin ETFs, including iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, have each dropped more than 8% this week [2] - Ethereum has decreased by 35.82% from its all-time intraday high of $4,955.23 in August 2025, with related ETFs dropping nearly 10% this week [4] ETF Performance - iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) last traded at $53.48, down 3.80% [3] - Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) last traded at $82.18, down 3.80% [3] - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) last traded at $73.78, down 3.78% [3] - iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) last traded at $23.69, down 1.04% [5] - Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETHE) last traded at $25.75, down 0.92% [5] - Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) last traded at $31.30, down 0.95% [5] Market Sentiment - Negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies has persisted, with significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, totaling $932 million and $438 million respectively [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month has decreased to 45%, with 54% of market watchers expecting no change [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price has recently fallen over 5%, trading below $100,000, marking its lowest point since reaching a record high of over $126,000 in early October [2][4] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is part of a broader trend following a significant drop in the crypto market, referred to as the crypto market's Black Friday, leading to the first red October for Bitcoin since 2018 [2][4] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment has shifted to fear, as indicated by the crypto fear and greed index, which moved from a neutral position to fear [3] - The volatility of cryptocurrencies is highlighted, with sharp declines typically following extended upward trends [4] ETF Outflows - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows of approximately $1.3 billion since October 29, with spot Ether ETFs seeing outflows of around $500 million during the same period [5][7] - The outflows from these ETFs coincide with the decline in Bitcoin's price, which last fell below $100,000 in May [5][7] Impact on Related Stocks - Major stocks linked to Bitcoin, such as MicroStrategy, Coinbase Global, and Robinhood, have also seen declines of at least 6% as a result of the weakening Bitcoin price [6][7] - Some investors, however, remain bullish; for instance, a strategy co-founded by Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor acquired 397 Bitcoin at an average price of $114,771 between October 27 and November 2 [6]