Odds of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran have surged on the cryptocurrency prediction market, despite President Donald Trump's assertion that military objectives are nearly complete.Will US Troops Enter Iran?The probability that U.S. troops physically enter Iran by the end of April surged from 42% to 57% in a week on Polymarket. The odds of U.S. boots on the ground before year-end rose to 72%, up from 63% the week before.Nearly $23 million has been wagered on the outcome. U.S. military personnel must physical ...

Group 1: Iran Conflict and Market Reactions - Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran's new supreme leader following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli strikes, with Trump suggesting that U.S. approval will be necessary for the new leader to maintain power [1] - Trump indicated that the war against Iran is "pretty much" completed and could end sooner than expected, leading to a rise in stock markets and a 5% drop in oil prices [2][3] - The Revolutionary Guards of Iran asserted that they, rather than the U.S., would determine the end of the war, highlighting the ongoing tensions [1] Group 2: Market Predictions and Trends - Polymarket data shows a 73% chance that fighting will officially end by April 30, increasing to 82% by June 30, indicating market optimism regarding a resolution [3] - The odds of a formal declaration of the end of military actions by U.S. officials by March 31 have surged to 44%, up from 11% the previous day, reflecting changing market sentiments [4]