Core Insights - Emerging Markets (EM) represent 10-15% of global equity market capitalization, which is significant but often overlooked due to poor performance in recent decades [1][2] - Over the past 15 years, EM has returned 4.6% annualized compared to 11.4% for Developed Markets (DM) and 7.3% for developed international markets, leading to a prolonged period of underperformance for EM [2][3] - In 2025, EM has shown a strong recovery, up approximately 21% compared to 13% for broader markets, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] Resilience and Market Dynamics - Despite rising central bank rates from near zero in 2021 to 5.5% by the end of 2023, EM has shown resilience, managing the hiking cycle better than in previous cycles [4][5] - The overall growth and increased diversification in EM have made these markets less risky than in the past, with decreasing headwinds as rates begin to decline [5] Valuations and Earnings Growth - EM typically has lower valuations, with a current multiple spread of 20.4x for DM and 13.8x for EM, which is historically wide and supportive of EM investment [6][7] - Relative earnings growth has slowed due to a more tariffed global trade environment, but this is not seen as an insurmountable challenge [8] Flows and Currency Trends - Incremental capital is increasingly flowing into international markets, including EM, which may benefit from a weaker US dollar, historically a positive factor for EM performance [9][11] - Many developing economies in EM are resource-rich, which may enhance their currency strength in a context of inflationary pressures in developed economies [12] Concentration Issues - A concentration problem has emerged within EM, particularly with significant price appreciation in markets like China (up 45%), Hong Kong (60%), and Taiwan (30%) over the past year [13][14] - The high concentration in technology sectors within these markets raises concerns, as many investors may not be aware of the risks associated with this concentration [15] Final Thoughts - Despite some challenges, including slowing earnings growth and concentration risks, the positives for EM investment are seen to outweigh the negatives [16][17] - Attractive valuations and increasing international fund flows suggest that EM may capture a larger share of investment, especially if the US dollar continues to weaken [17]