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USD/ARS: Here’s why the Argentine peso has crashed despite Trump bailout
Invezz· 2025-10-22 16:00
Core Insights - The Argentine peso has experienced a significant decline, trading at an unprecedented rate of 1,500 against the USD, marking a 45% increase in the USD/ARS exchange rate this year, making it the worst-performing currency [1][4]. Economic Context - The surge in the USD/ARS pair occurred despite US government interventions, including the sale of dollars through Banco Santander and a $20 billion currency swap line [2][3]. - The US Treasury is also negotiating with American banks for additional loans, although many banks are hesitant to participate [3]. Political Factors - The upcoming mid-term elections in Argentina pose a risk to the current administration, with the potential loss of Milei's party, which could lead to a cessation of US aid [3][5]. - There is significant domestic pressure on Donald Trump regarding the bailout, with some lawmakers advocating for prioritizing American interests over foreign aid [5][6]. Market Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that the USD/ARS pair has been in a strong uptrend, surpassing key resistance levels, suggesting potential for further gains [8][9]. - The ongoing rally of the US dollar, with the dollar index rising from 96 to nearly 100, has contributed to the peso's decline against both developed and emerging market currencies [7].