The US is expected to suspend port fees for a year on China-linked vessels starting next week, as the two countries deescalate a maritime contest that had become a sticking point in the trade war https://t.co/1e0KFhEsJs ...

China did a substantial unprovoked escalation last week. We were unable to get in touch with them. Since then it's been IMF World Bank Week.They have had working level people here. There have been meetings. The vice premier who is now in counterpart and I will be speaking this evening at around 830, 9:00, and then he and I in a delegation will meet in Malaysia probably a week from tomorrow to prepare there for the two presidents to meet.So I again, I think that things have deescalated. We hope that China wi ...

Geopolitics and Sanctions - The report suggests that current sanctions under President Biden were designed to help Putin sell oil [1] - President Biden allegedly asked India to import Russian oil to prevent oil prices from staying at $127 per barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine [2] - The US attempted to limit Russia's revenue through a price cap mechanism, enabling Russian oil to flow to India and China to keep US gasoline prices low [3][4] - President Trump has threatened to sanction India if they continue importing Russian oil [4] - The best-case scenario involves a ceasefire between Putin and Zelensky, potentially leading to the removal of European sanctions on Russia [7][8] - Europe has heavy sanctions, and new European sanctions are coming on refined products from Russian crude [8] Oil Market Dynamics - Shale oil production is reportedly declining [5] - The market is skeptical about disruption risk and sanctions, and is priced for de-escalation [9] - If the meeting fails and sanctions are implemented, the president will need to calibrate them to coincide with a loosening in global oil fundamentals to avoid sending oil prices up [5] - If Russian barrels are lost and crude oil prices rise above $100 again, shale oil cannot simply pump more to compensate [4]

Core Argument - The speech addresses how individuals react in high-stress situations, particularly when feeling threatened, which the speaker refers to as being in the "blowfish zone" [2] - It argues that common responses like telling someone to "calm down" are ineffective and can worsen the situation because they invalidate the other person's perceived threat [3][4] - The speech advocates for strategies to de-escalate conflict by making the other person feel seen, safe, and understood [8] Practical Strategies - The speaker suggests focusing on understanding the other person's worries and addressing their perceived threat, rather than trying to correct or direct their behavior [8][9] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing personal signals of stress and implementing quick, sensory-based techniques to regain emotional stability [16][17][18] - The speech recommends incorporating routine safety measures into daily life to reduce overall stress levels and improve the ability to listen and think critically [20] Societal Implications - The speech connects individual threat responses to broader societal issues like tribalism, polarization, and division, arguing that these are signs of collective stress [14][15] - It suggests that media and political channels often exploit threat responses to capture attention, leading to increased outrage and conflict [13] - The speech calls for a shift away from "cancel culture" and towards creating safer environments for conversation and shared problem-solving [21]

Geopolitical Analysis - The attack by Iran on the US military base in Qatar was designed to de-escalate tensions and avoid casualties, serving as a performative act to save face [2][3] - Iran's priorities are consolidating the regime and improving the Iranian economy to placate the people [4][5] - Iran may seek to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program, viewing it as a deterrent against attacks [6][7] - Regime change in Iran is unlikely to be successful if imposed externally and requires internal support, drawing parallels to the outcomes in Libya and Iraq [9][10] Strategic Considerations - The US is likely to restrain Israel from significantly harming Iran economically to avoid driving up world oil prices or provoking attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities or in the Straits of Hormuz [12][13] - The US should not focus on regime change as a policy goal, as it is difficult to implement and requires internal factors [13] - The extent of damage to Iranian nuclear sites like Fordo and the location of Iranian enriched uranium and advanced centrifuges remain unknown [7][8]

Geopolitical Analysis - The market perceives the missile attack as a potential de-escalation, despite its seemingly contradictory nature [1] - Iran provided advance notice of the strikes, allowing the US and other parties time to prepare [2] - Iran's response appears to be more symbolic, not necessarily indicating a desire for further escalation [3] - The Iranian media may be portraying the attack as a victory against the US, without acknowledging the missiles being intercepted [3] - Governments often feel compelled to respond to attacks to maintain public support [4] Historical Context - Similar Iranian actions have been observed previously, such as the missile launches against Israel in April and the response to Soleimani's killing [4] Future Outlook - It is too early to definitively determine if this marks the beginning of a rapid escalation; the situation requires ongoing monitoring [1][5]

All right, here's what's interesting, folks. We've got the price of oil falling fast. In fact, crude oil here and crude oil that's traded around the world is down a couple of percent.For more on the latest developments, bring in CBC contributor and RBC head of global commodities markets, Hale Lima Croft. Hale Lima, are you surprised that oil is not only down but down so much. Down this much.I think it's a combination of President Trump tweeting that he wanted, you know, drill, baby drill, lower oil prices, ...

Geopolitical Landscape & Diplomatic Stance - European leaders emphasize de-escalation and diplomacy as the primary solution to Middle East tensions, suggesting military action is not the answer [1] - While initially supportive of Israeli strikes, some European leaders are now expressing reticence [2] - A key message remains that Iran should never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons [3] - The EU stresses the importance of respecting international law, potentially a tacit criticism of US actions [4] US Foreign Policy & European Concerns - The debate centers on whether US airstrikes were preemptive (based on imminent danger) or preventative (based on a longer-term threat), raising concerns internationally and domestically [5][6] - Europe fears alienating the US, especially with ongoing concerns about Ukraine, trade wars, and the presence of American troops in Europe [7] - Europe worries that US involvement in the Middle East will divert American resources from Europe, forcing Europe to act alone [9][10] NATO Implications - Discussions at the upcoming NATO summit will likely focus on how the Middle East situation impacts Europe [8] - A key consideration is the potential weakening of Russia if Iran is weakened, due to the drone supply relationship [9]

US Foreign Policy & Middle East Conflict - The US involvement should focus on de-escalation and conflict resolution [2] - Encouraging both parties to calm down is crucial [2][3] - Avoiding actions that could expand the conflict in the Middle East is necessary [2] - Preventing the US from being dragged into another endless war in the region is a priority [2] Constitutional & Political Considerations - The US Congress, not the president, holds the power to declare war [2] - Concerns exist that the president might escalate the situation to force Congress's hand [3] - Democrats are largely opposed to initiating another war in the Middle East [3] - The aim is to encourage parties to de-escalate and return to negotiations [3]

President Trump is cutting short, as we've just mentioned there, the G7 summit in Canada, hours after he took to social media to call for the evacuation of Iran's capital, Tehran. Now, why are you leaving the G7 early to Washington. I have to be back.Very important. Let's bring in our panel now. Our team, really,, Bloomberg desk editor Jill Disis, joining us for the G-7 summit as well is our Bloomberg correspondent David Gura.Jill, I'll start with you on the latest in Iran. We're hearing that there might be ...