Core Insights - President Trump's assertion that U.S. growth can manage debt reflects a misunderstanding of the debt cycle, as noted by Ray Dalio, who warns that this phase is dangerous when leaders confuse prosperity with immunity [1][5]. Economic Policy and Tax Cuts - Trump highlighted his "Big, Beautiful Bill," which aims to lock in and expand tax cuts from his first term while introducing new deductions for tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income for seniors [2]. - The combination of this tax package and recent tariffs is expected to generate "record growth" and significant fiscal benefits [2]. Debt and Economic Growth - Despite a reported Real GDP growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025, the gross federal debt remains substantial at approximately $37.4 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio around 100% [3]. - Tariff revenues are projected to reach about $165 billion by August and an annualized $300 billion, which is insufficient to address the trillion-dollar debt reduction needed [4]. Warnings from Debt Cycle Analysis - Ray Dalio's research indicates that during economic booms, increased lending can temporarily boost spending and asset prices, but this is unsustainable as income growth will eventually lag behind loan costs [5][6]. - Dalio emphasizes that debt burdens can only be alleviated when nominal income growth exceeds nominal interest rates, cautioning that excessive stimulus may lead to inflation and currency devaluation [5].

RT Real Vision (@RealVision)Ok babe, so since the Treaty of Versailles, the world has been in a debt cycle loop. This makes governments debase their currency at ~8% a year.Now, if you add inflation, currently around ~3%, the new hurdle rate is 11%.Stocks, houses, diamonds, even my fancy Patek babe, they’re all peanuts next to the exponential gains of tech and crypto. You gotta be prepared, you have 5 years to marry me or unfuck your future…It’s all part of the Everything Code from legends @BittelJulien & @R ...