ab 28 January 2026 Global Research US Economic Perspectives US Fiscal Outlook: 2026 and beyond Fiscal policy plays a central role in the 2026 US economic outlook A large part of the optimism for economic growth in 2026 is built on expectations that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will bolster household spending and support business investment. We estimate that overall fiscal policy should add ~0.3pp to real GDP growth in 2026, including our estimate that the OBBBA adds ~0.45pp to growth, while slowin ...