11.08% of office CMBS are delinquent.That means over 1 in 10 office buildings with securitized loans aren’t making payments; the highest rate ever.Monetary capital is leaving commercial real estate, and Bitcoin is ready to welcome it.[B2YB @JoinHorizon_] https://t.co/daFNXSRsIH ...

The delinquency rate on office CMBS is 11.08%.That means over 1 in 10 office buildings in the U.S. with securitized loans aren't making payments. Highest level ever, worse than the GFC.Guess what happens when they default? ...

Many homeowners are having a hard time keeping up with their mortgage payments as home prices sit at record highs, forcing homebuyers to take out larger loans. In May, mortgage delinquency rates grew faster than any other debt type. https://t.co/6g2DkO3O0m ...

Core Insights - The Canadian credit market experienced mixed outcomes in Q1 2025, with growth driven by increased borrowing from young Canadians and newcomers, while subprime consumers faced rising delinquency rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Credit Market Growth - Total outstanding credit debt in Canada reached $2.5 trillion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 4.7% year-over-year growth [2] - Gen Z consumers contributed significantly to this growth, with their outstanding balances increasing by 30.6% year-over-year, accounting for $12 billion or 10.3% of total new balance growth [3] - New Canadians added $2.6 billion in new credit balances, marking a 6.3% increase year-over-year [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Risk Tiers - Non-mortgage debt grew by 2.4%, with below prime average consumer balances increasing by 4.4%, and subprime consumers seeing the highest increase at 6.3% [5] - The average non-mortgage balances per consumer varied across risk tiers, with subprime consumers averaging $23,638, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase [6] - Serious delinquency rates for consumers 60 days or more delinquent rose by 11 basis points year-over-year to 2.71% in Q1 2025, influenced by the influx of new-to-credit consumers [15] Group 3: Regional Disparities - There are significant regional differences in delinquency trends, with Alberta experiencing the highest delinquency rates due to economic volatility, while Quebec had the lowest [17][18] - Average debt per borrower varied by province, with P.E.I. and Newfoundland having the highest average debt levels, which may increase vulnerability to financial strain [9] Group 4: Economic Conditions and Consumer Credit Index - The Canada Consumer Credit Index dropped to 100.3, down almost 6 points from the previous year, indicating muted credit demand amid economic uncertainty [12] - Economic conditions have led to a widening financial divide among credit consumers, with some benefiting from improved inflation and interest rates while others continue to face challenges [14]

Core Insights - Economic uncertainty continues to affect credit usage and consumer financial health in Canada, with total consumer debt reaching $2.55 trillion at the end of Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-over-year but a decrease of over $6 billion from the end of 2024 [1][2] - The mortgage market is experiencing a significant shift, primarily driven by renewals and refinancing, as new mortgage originations increased by 57.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025 [5][6] - There is a notable rise in missed payments, with over 1.4 million Canadians missing at least one credit payment during the quarter, indicating financial strain among consumers [8][9] Consumer Debt Trends - Average non-mortgage debt per consumer rose to $21,859 in Q1 2025, largely due to a strong auto loan market [1][2] - Credit card spending decreased, with average monthly spend per cardholder falling by $107, marking the lowest level since March 2022 [3][4] - The average credit card pay rate decreased to 52.9%, with younger consumers under 35 showing a significant drop in their pay rate [4][12] Mortgage Market Dynamics - The "Great Renewal" phenomenon is evident as many pandemic-era mortgages come up for renewal, with 28% of mortgages switching lenders [5][6] - First-time homebuyer activity increased by 40% from Q1 2024, although affordability remains a challenge with average monthly payments dropping by 7.8% to $2,300 [7][9] Delinquency Rates and Financial Stress - Delinquency rates among non-mortgage holders rose by 8.9% year-over-year, with younger Canadians aged 18-25 experiencing a 15.1% increase in delinquency rates [9][12] - Ontario reported the highest increase in delinquency rates across all credit products, with a 71.5% rise in 90+ day mortgage delinquency rates [10][11] - The delinquency rate for younger consumers under 26 reached 5.38%, a 21.7% increase year-over-year, indicating heightened financial stress in this demographic [12][13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported distributable earnings of $57.3 million or $0.28 per share, and $0.31 per share excluding one-time realized losses from the sale of two REO assets [19][12] - The return on equity (ROE) for the first quarter was approximately 10% [19] - The company anticipates distributable earnings guidance of $0.30 to $0.35 per quarter for 2025 [19][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The balance sheet lending platform originated $370 million in new bridge loans during the first quarter, with a target of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for 2025 [13][14] - The agency business had a slow first quarter, producing $6 million in originations and $731 million in loan sales, maintaining strong margins of 1.75% [25] - The investment portfolio grew to $11.5 billion at March 31, with an all-in yield of 7.85% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant backup in long-term rates, creating headwinds for originations [7][8] - The delinquency rate decreased by 20% to $654 million as of March 31, compared to $819 million at December 31 [22] - The average cost of debt decreased to approximately 6.82% at March 31 from 6.88% at December 31 [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on resolving REO assets and delinquencies, viewing 2025 as a transitional year [18][12] - The strategy includes leveraging efficiencies in the securitization market and maintaining strong banking relationships to drive future earnings [5][7] - The company aims to reposition underperforming assets to increase occupancy and net operating income (NOI) over the next 12 to 24 months [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current economic environment is characterized by volatility and uncertainty, particularly regarding interest rates [8][9] - There is optimism about potential rate reductions, which could positively impact agency volumes and earnings [9][12] - The management believes that the company is well-positioned to grow earnings and dividends again in 2026 if current challenges are addressed [12][18] Other Important Information - The company has successfully modified $38 million of loans and brought $39 million of loans back to performing status [10] - The company expects REO assets to increase to between $400 million and $500 million, with plans to aggressively manage and reposition these assets [52][54] - The book value at the end of the quarter was reported at $11.98 [77] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the Bridge portfolio growth in 2025? - Management expects net growth in the Bridge portfolio, targeting $1.5 billion to $2 billion in new business, with runoff projected between $1.5 billion to $3 billion depending on interest rates [32][33] Question: What were the primary weaknesses in the 2022 and 2023 vintages? - Management indicated that the multifamily sector experienced a long period of growth without corrections, leading to poor performance due to rising rates, economic vacancy issues, and increased competition from inexperienced entrants [39][41] Question: What is the current liquidity situation and expectations for NPLs and REO? - The company has $325 million in cash and liquidity, with expectations for REO to rise to between $400 million and $500 million, while NPLs are projected to decrease as assets are repositioned [48][54] Question: How much of the reported income was non-cash? - The company reported $15.3 million of PIK (payment-in-kind) interest during the quarter, which is a moving number based on loan modifications and performance [66] Question: What is the company's stance on stock buybacks? - Management emphasized the importance of liquidity and will evaluate stock buybacks based on market conditions and opportunities for capital growth [78]