Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - Fed Chair Jay Powell indicated no rush to cut rates, refraining from pointing to any specific meeting for a potential rate cut, including July [2][3] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates this year if economic conditions, such as lower inflation or rising unemployment, warrant it, but the timing remains uncertain [7][12] - The majority on the committee still forecasts two rate cuts this year [12] Tariffs & Economic Impact - Tariffs' impact is expected to start showing up in economic data this month, potentially pushing up prices [4][9] - The effects of tariffs depend on their ultimate level and expectations, which reached a peak in April and have since declined [9] - The Fed is closely monitoring fiscal policy and its potential effects on the economy, refraining from commenting directly on the President's policies [8] Geopolitical Risks & Cease-fire - Geopolitical risks, including the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Iran, introduce uncertainty for policymakers [4][14] - The Fed is taking a cautious approach, monitoring geopolitical developments day by day, as the situation remains chaotic [15] - A fragile cease-fire has been reached between Israel and Iran [14][44] US Foreign Policy & International Relations - President Trump expressed frustration with perceived violations of the cease-fire by both Israel and Iran [23][44] - The US military action against Iranian nuclear facilities aimed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon [27][31] - The President is pushing NATO allies to increase defense spending, aiming for a 5% quota [19][93] New York City Mayoral Primary - Ranked-choice voting is in play for the Democratic mayoral primary, potentially leading to multiple rounds of tabulation [73][76] - Housing is a top issue for New York City voters, influencing the campaigns and their messaging [81] - Weather in New York City, with temperatures reaching 102 degrees Fahrenheit, could potentially affect voter turnout [73]