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Costco Renewal Rates Stay Near Historical Highs Despite Digital Shift
ZACKS· 2025-12-19 16:50
Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's first-quarter fiscal 2026 results indicate strong membership renewal rates, with the U.S. and Canada at 92.2% and worldwide at 89.7% [1][8] - The slight decline of 10 basis points in renewal rates is attributed to the growing share of online members, who renew at lower rates compared to warehouse sign-ups [2][8] - Membership income surged 14% to $1,329 million, driven by a 5.2% year-over-year increase in paid households to 81.4 million and a higher-tier executive membership base that now accounts for 74.3% of total sales [4][8] Membership Trends - Costco is enhancing digital renewal trends by increasing engagement with members who sign up through mobile and web platforms [3] - The company anticipates that overall renewal rates may experience further slight declines in upcoming quarters due to digital growth, but loyalty to the warehouse value proposition remains strong [3] Competitive Landscape - Walmart reported a 17% growth in global membership fee income during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, indicating strong momentum in its membership offerings [5] - BJ's Wholesale Club saw a 9.8% increase in membership fee income, highlighting robust member acquisition and retention strategies [6] Financial Metrics - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 41.64, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.76 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects year-over-year sales growth of 7.5% and earnings per share growth of 11.7% for the current financial year [10]