Core Inflation Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown the largest month-on-month and year-on-year increase since January, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% compared to 2.7% in July [1][2] - Core commodities have shifted from being a negative drag on CPI to a positive contributor, likely due to tariff effects, while core services remain sticky at 3.6% [6][10] Labor Market Concerns - There is a notable spike in jobless claims, which may be partly seasonal, with claims rising from 236,000 to 263,000, including a significant increase in Texas [4][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to prioritize labor market concerns over inflation data, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [7][9] Market Expectations - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain high, with a 100% chance of a rate cut in September and 92% in October, reflecting confidence in three rate cuts this year [5][9] - Economists express skepticism about the inflation report, indicating that the current inflation dynamics may not align with their expectations for a stable economic environment [6][10]