Core Insights - Itron, Inc. is showcasing advancements in its Grid Edge Intelligence portfolio and newly formed Resiliency Solutions segment at DTECH 2026, addressing grid complexity, rising energy demand, and reliability challenges [1][5] Grid Edge Intelligence Portfolio - The Grid Edge Intelligence portfolio provides utilities with end-to-end business solutions, leveraging distributed intelligence (DI) to enhance visibility and control at the grid edge, ultimately reducing total cost of ownership (TCO) [2] - Itron has shipped over 16 million DI-enabled meters and manages more than 100 million endpoints, with 70GWh of flexible customer load and generation dispatched in 2025 [2] - Collaborations with major tech companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and AWS enhance the portfolio's capabilities in AI and machine learning, allowing for real-time insights and improved utility data value extraction [3][14] Resiliency Solutions Segment - The new Resiliency Solutions segment integrates capabilities from recent acquisitions (Urbint and Locusview) to help utilities manage critical systems throughout their lifecycle, from planning to operations [4] - These solutions aim to increase efficiency, resilience, and reliability, particularly during high-pressure events such as natural disasters [9] Customer Experience and DER Management - Itron's Customer Experience solutions unify real-time load disaggregation and grid-capacity data, improving program design and customer satisfaction [7] - The IntelliFLEX DERMS solution managed over 70GWh of flexible customer load in 2025 and supports battery storage and solar management across major territories [7] Advanced Grid Reliability - Itron's Advanced Grid Reliability solutions target a 10% reduction in outage minutes and a 20% increase in capacity through improved asset utilization [8] - These solutions provide real-time visibility and analytics to optimize grid operations and enhance safety and resiliency [8] Strategic Collaborations - Itron's partnerships with companies like Schneider Electric and NET2GRID focus on improving grid operations and customer engagement through advanced analytics and load disaggregation [3][12] - Collaborations with Gordian Technologies and Snowflake enhance grid reliability and enable practical power flow analysis for utilities [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Itron, Inc. (ITRI) has experienced a significant decline in its stock price, dropping 26% over the past three months and 31.6% over the past six months, underperforming both the Zacks Electronics - Testing Equipment industry and the broader market [1][8]. Financial Performance - Itron has lowered its 2025 revenue guidance to $2.35–$2.36 billion, indicating an approximate 3% year-over-year decline. The fourth-quarter 2025 revenue is projected to be between $555–$565 million, reflecting a 9% decrease from the previous year [4]. - Non-GAAP EPS is expected to range from $2.15 to $2.25 [4]. Competitive Landscape - The company is facing intense competition, leading to pricing pressure and potential market share erosion. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including higher interest rates and inflation, are causing consumers to delay bill payments and impacting project approvals [3][4]. Operational Challenges - Itron's elevated debt burden stands at $1.265 billion, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 42.1%, significantly higher than the industry average of 25.8%. This high leverage may limit cash flow flexibility and access to favorable refinancing options [5]. Growth Drivers - Despite the challenges, Itron's Grid Edge Intelligence platform is showing momentum, driven by demand in data centers, electrification, grid modernization, and digitalization across utilities, supported by a backlog of $4.3 billion [6]. - Frequent product launches, including the Gen6 network platform and UtilityIQ suite, are enhancing Itron's offerings and market position [9]. Strategic Initiatives - Itron is pursuing strategic acquisitions, such as the planned acquisition of Locusview for $525 million and Urbint, Inc. for $325 million, aimed at enhancing its capabilities in utility construction management and predictive risk analytics [10]. - Collaborations with companies like Gordian Technologies to integrate AI and machine learning into its offerings are expected to improve grid resilience and operational efficiency [10]. Valuation - Itron's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio of 13.54X, which is below the industry average of 23.84X, indicating a potential undervaluation [11].

Core Thesis - Itron, Inc. is positioned to benefit from a generational replacement cycle in metering solutions, with a strong market share in electricity, gas, and water utilities [3][4]. Company Overview - Itron generates approximately 60% of its revenue from electricity utilities, 20% from gas, and 20% from water utilities, operating through Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, and Outcomes segments [3]. - The Networked Solutions segment is the largest revenue contributor, providing Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Automated Meter Reading (AMR) endpoints, enhancing utility management through two-way communication [3]. Market Dynamics - A replacement cycle is anticipated due to high deployments from 2010 to 2012 and delays caused by COVID-19, expected to drive industry growth at around 5% through 2029 [4]. - Itron is expected to increase its market share from 48% in 2024 to potentially 60% by 2029, capitalizing on the challenges faced by competitor Landis+Gyr [5]. Competitive Advantage - Itron's superior Distributed Intelligence (DI) technology and operational execution position it well to capture market share, especially with Landis+Gyr facing organizational challenges [4][5]. - Control over the network layer enhances customer retention and positions Itron favorably for meter replacements, including approximately 12.5 million Landis meters on third-party networks [5]. Financial Projections - Itron is projected to achieve growth of 7–7.5% through 2027, with EBITDA margins expanding to 16% and EPS reaching $7.5, indicating a potential 30% upside to a target price of $160 by the end of 2026 [6]. - Key catalysts for stock rerating include visibility into the replacement cycle by late 2025 and the impact of network access restrictions in 2026 [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the first quarter was $607 million, a 1% increase year over year, with adjusted EBITDA of $88 million and non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.52 [5][12] - Free cash flow improved to $67 million from $34 million a year ago, reflecting strong operational earnings growth [14] - GAAP net income was $65 million or $1.42 per diluted share, compared to $52 million or $1.12 per share in the prior year [13] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Device Solutions revenue decreased by 1% year over year to $126 million, but increased by 2% on a constant currency basis, with gross margin at 30% and operating margin at 24.2% [14][16] - Network Solutions revenue was $403 million, with a gross margin of 36.9% and operating margin of 28.8%, showing a slight decrease in gross margin due to product mix [16] - Outcomes revenue grew by 14% year over year to $79 million, with gross margin at 39.2% and operating margin at 18.2% [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bookings for the quarter resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 0.9, with a backlog of $4.7 billion, remaining near record levels [6][7] - Customer demand is driven by the adoption of Itron's Great Edge Intelligence platform, enhancing distribution capacity and infrastructure agility [5][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing its factory footprint, strengthening supply chain resilience, and growing recurring revenue to capitalize on future opportunities [19][20] - Itron aims to maintain its industry leadership through the deployment of innovative solutions, positioning itself as a partner of choice for utilities and cities [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged increased macroeconomic and trade policy uncertainty but expressed confidence in navigating near-term challenges [19] - The company expects Q2 revenue to be in the range of $605 million to $615 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share anticipated to grow approximately 12% year over year [18] Other Important Information - The estimated EBITDA impact from tariffs for the year is approximately $15 million, net of mitigation measures [10][42] - The regulatory environment remains constructive for customers, with various mechanisms allowing software purchases to be included in rate bases [38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on full year guidance - Management stated it is premature to update full year guidance but noted strong performance in Q1 and expectations for Q2 [24][26] Question: Device Solutions segment margins - Management expressed satisfaction with current margins but indicated variability may occur due to seasonal factors [28][29] Question: Twelve-month backlog removal - Management clarified that the removal was to avoid confusion and stated that the demand environment remains positive [32][33] Question: Regulatory environment for software capitalization - Management noted that the regulatory environment is supportive, with various mechanisms in place for software purchases [36][38] Question: Tariff mitigation efforts - Management explained that the $15 million estimate includes current tariffs and mitigation measures, with most impacts expected in the latter half of the year [62] Question: M&A activity and capital deployment - The priority remains finding acquisitions that enhance software content, with ongoing activity in the M&A space [71][72] Question: Recurring revenue mix in Outcomes segment - Management reported approximately 70% recurring revenue in Q1, with a goal of reaching closer to 80% in the future [75]