Company Overview - Hershey Co. is positioned as a strong dividend growth stock, with a focus on domestic production to mitigate risks from international tariffs and geopolitical issues [4][5] - The company operates 14 plants in the U.S. and has additional facilities in Brazil, India, Canada, and Mexico, which provides insulation against potential retaliatory tariffs [4][5] Financial Performance - Cocoa prices, which account for approximately 20% of Hershey's cost of goods sold, have been volatile, impacting stock performance [7] - Hershey's stock is down about 1.4% this year, while the S&P 500 has gained approximately 4.4% [8] - Despite rising cocoa prices, they are forecasted to decline by 13% in 2026, which could benefit Hershey in the long term [8] Product Strategy - Hershey is adapting to changing consumer preferences by launching new products that reduce reliance on chocolate, such as the Reese peanut-butter-filled pretzels [11] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including two plants from Weaver Popcorn Manufacturing, to diversify its product offerings and mitigate cocoa price fluctuations [11] Cost Management - Hershey is implementing a two-year restructuring plan aimed at saving $300 million through automation and streamlined production, which has positively impacted free cash flow [12] - The increase in free cash flow has enabled a 32% boost to Hershey's dividend in 2024, highlighting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][13] Dividend Outlook - Hershey's current dividend yield is 3.3%, which is more than double the S&P 500 average, with a focus on payout growth as a key investment driver [13] - The stock's price has historically tracked the dividend payout, suggesting potential for a "snap back" in stock performance as cocoa prices retreat and cost-cutting measures take effect [13][14] Market Stability - Hershey is characterized by low volatility, with a five-year beta rating of 0.28, indicating it is less volatile than the S&P 500, making it an attractive option in uncertain market conditions [14]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General's stock has significantly declined from its peak, but recent recovery efforts and macroeconomic positioning may present a strong buying opportunity for investors [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - Dollar General's shares are down over 50% from an all-time high of $248 in 2022, attracting value-focused investors [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 28%, yet it remains relatively undervalued with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, compared to the S&P 500 average of 28 and Walmart's 38 [11]. Group 2: Business Model and Market Challenges - Dollar General serves low-income consumers in rural and urban areas, maintaining low prices through a no-frills shopping experience [4]. - The company experienced growth during the pandemic due to government stimulus, but faced challenges in 2022 and 2023 as inflation impacted consumer purchasing power [5]. Group 3: Recovery Strategy and Financials - Under CEO Todd Vasos, who returned in 2023, Dollar General is implementing a turnaround strategy focused on supply chain and merchandise improvements, showing promising early results [6]. - In the fourth quarter, sales increased by 4.5% year over year to $10.3 billion, although operating income fell 49% to $294.2 million due to noncash charges [7]. Group 4: Tariff Exposure and Economic Resilience - Analysts suggest that only 10% of Dollar General's sales may be affected by tariffs, significantly lower than the 50% to 100% exposure seen in the broader retail sector [9]. - The company may also attract wealthier consumers during economic downturns, providing a potential buffer against recession impacts [10]. Group 5: Dividend and Investment Appeal - Dollar General offers a dividend yield of 2.4% with a payout ratio around 46%, indicating potential for maintaining or growing dividends as the turnaround strategy progresses [12].