Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - Dollar Stores are experiencing significant momentum, with an expected acceleration in share gains throughout 2025, potentially driving an incremental comp growth of approximately 200-250 basis points [3][18][22] - The combined share of Dollar Stores (DG, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI) nearly doubled in Q1'25, reaching around 3% of incremental retail sales, compared to 1.6% in Q4'24 [2][13] - Major retailers like AMZN, WMT, and COST continue to dominate the market, capturing approximately 43% of every incremental dollar of retail sales, making it challenging for other retailers to gain market share [4][7] Summary by Sections Dollar Store Performance - Dollar Stores benefited from a heightened degree of share donation in Q1'25, with an estimated $3 billion of donated share, significantly higher than the previous quarter [15][18] - The share gains for Dollar Stores are attributed to bankruptcies and store closures among competitors, as well as tariff impacts on certain retailers [3][18] Major Retailers' Market Share - In Q1'25, AMZN's share of incremental retail sales decreased to 20.7%, while WMT and COST gained shares, with WMT at 11.1% and COST at 11.3% [4][9] - COST's share of incremental retail sales has shown a steady increase since 2022, reaching 11.3% in Q1'25, indicating strong momentum [9][10] Future Projections - The analysis suggests that Dollar Stores will continue to see outsized incremental sales through the end of 2025, driven by ongoing share donations from competitors [18][22] - The expected decline in Temu's sales is projected to significantly impact the market dynamics, with a forecasted 37% year-over-year decline in Q2'25 [18][22]