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高盛:京东集团-2025年TechNet 中国会议关键要点:京东零售势头强劲,持续聚焦外卖协同投资
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-23 05:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for JD.com Inc. with a 12-month target price of US$50 and HK$194 for the Hong Kong listing, indicating an upside potential of 48.6% and 46.4% respectively [2][16]. Core Insights - JD.com is viewed as an underappreciated differentiated business within the Chinese internet sector, benefiting from domestic consumption policies and category expansion, which are expected to drive further valuation multiple expansion [2]. - The company anticipates sustained healthy growth momentum in JD Retail, expecting double-digit growth in both top line and profit, supported by enhanced procurement capabilities [1]. - The food delivery segment is seen as a synergistic extension of JD Retail, enhancing user engagement and attracting new customers while improving fulfillment efficiency [1][11]. Summary by Sections JD Retail Outlook - JD.com expects continued double-digit growth in JD Retail, driven by improved procurement capabilities and economies of scale [1]. - The company has observed healthy user retention and positive repeat purchase rates among early food delivery users [1]. Food Delivery Business - Food delivery is integrated into JD's broader retail strategy, enhancing user experience and increasing consumption frequency [1]. - The company aims to differentiate its food delivery service through quality offerings and lower merchant charges, while also focusing on user engagement and operational improvements [11]. Financial Projections - JD.com projects total revenue growth from Rmb1,158.8 billion in 2022 to Rmb1,484.2 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% [12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 16% over the forecast period, with net income projected to grow from Rmb44.7 billion in 2022 to Rmb58.7 billion by 2027 [12].