Summary of Vietnam's Economic Development Plan (2026-2030) Industry Overview - The report focuses on Vietnam's economic development plan for the period 2026-2030, aiming for an average real GDP growth of 10% or more, as endorsed by the 14th National Party Congress [2][3][4]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Growth Target**: The government targets an average real GDP growth of 10% or more, a significant increase from the previous target of 6.5%-7.0% [4][5]. 2. **Investment Focus**: Development investment spending is projected to rise by 42% year-on-year in 2026, indicating a strong fiscal tilt towards capital formation [2][28]. 3. **Labor Productivity**: The plan aims for labor productivity growth of approximately 8.5% per year, up from 6.7% in the previous five years, emphasizing human-capital upgrading [10][11]. 4. **Infrastructure Investment**: Vietnam prioritizes scaling up infrastructure investment in transportation, energy, logistics, and digital infrastructure to support higher growth [2][28]. 5. **FDI Attraction**: The government is focused on attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into higher value-added sectors, with FDI inflows averaging around 4% of GDP annually [24][26]. 6. **Macroeconomic Stability**: The plan emphasizes maintaining macroeconomic stability, with a target inflation rate of around 4.5% for 2026 and a public debt limit of 60% of GDP [13][34]. 7. **Demographic Challenges**: Vietnam faces demographic constraints, including a slowing working-age population growth rate, which is projected to remain moderate at around 0.7% over the next five years [10][35]. 8. **Lessons from China**: The report draws parallels with China's early 2000s growth, noting that while Vietnam has a similar urbanization stage, it faces weaker demographic momentum and less supportive global trade conditions [35][36]. Additional Important Content 1. **Investment Composition**: The report highlights that over half of Vietnam's GDP growth in the past decade has come from investment, which is expected to rise to 35%-36% of GDP [11]. 2. **Public Investment**: The state's share of total investment has increased from 24% in 2019 to 27% in 2024, driven by weak private sector investment [34]. 3. **Urbanization Potential**: Vietnam's urbanization rate is around 40%, significantly below the EM Asia average of approximately 60%, indicating substantial potential for urban development [28]. 4. **Property Sector Risks**: The report warns of potential systemic risks in the property sector, similar to China's experience, due to liquidity stress and refinancing pressures for developers [50][51]. 5. **Domestic Value Addition**: Vietnam aims to increase domestic value-added share in exports, with recent surveys indicating a rise in local procurement by foreign firms operating in Vietnam [19][24]. This comprehensive overview captures the key elements of Vietnam's economic development plan, highlighting both the ambitious growth targets and the challenges that lie ahead.