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Murphy USA (MUSA) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, same store fuel volumes decreased by 3.2%, but July volumes rebounded to 100% of prior year levels [6][14] - The company expects to be at or slightly below the low end of its annual guidance range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month for fuel volumes [14] - Merchandise contribution margin is projected to be within the low end of the guided range of $855 million to $875 million, with Q2 merchandising contribution at Murphy USA branded stores up 8.9% excluding cigarettes and lottery [15][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-combustible nicotine categories are growing at a rate that offsets the decline in cigarette margins, which represent only 30% of total nicotine margin contribution [7] - Average per store month food and beverage sales at QuickChek have been positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance despite industry challenges [8] - Merchandise contribution increased by 8.9% for the quarter, driven by strength in candy and packaged beverages [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail fuel margins improved by 50 basis points in 2024 and are seeing an 80 basis point improvement year-to-date in 2025 [11] - The company outpaced OPUS volumes in each of its markets for the full quarter, indicating a competitive position despite overall market challenges [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining store profitability through operational cost improvements and is excited about the quality of its new store pipeline, with plans to deliver 50 new stores over the next twelve months [12][19] - The capital allocation strategy remains a fifty-fifty approach, balancing growth investments and shareholder returns, with a commitment to share repurchases [20][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term potential of the business, particularly in connection with a $1.3 billion EBITDA target for 2028, despite some metrics being slower than anticipated [21][22] - The company is managing costs effectively in a challenging demand environment, with a focus on maintaining a low-cost operating model [54] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 471,000 shares in Q2, bringing year-to-date repurchases to nearly 900,000 shares, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [20] - The effective tax rate for the first half was 22%, with expectations for the second half to be within the guided range of 24% to 26% [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in gallons and market share - Management noted that trends worsened partly due to a different same store base and that margins improved despite lower volumes [30][31] Question: Guidance reiteration - Management confirmed that while they do not provide EBITDA guidance, they are managing offsets between merchandise pressure and operational expenses effectively [34] Question: Store build confidence - Management highlighted that bottlenecks have been addressed, and the pipeline for new stores is robust, with confidence in meeting the target of 40 new stores in 2025 [38][42] Question: Demand environment and cost flexibility - Management discussed the importance of consumer price sensitivity and the ability to optimize costs in response to lower demand [46][49] Question: Merchandise contribution growth - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth in merchandise contribution, driven by strong performance in specific categories and initiatives to increase customer loyalty [58][60] Question: Fuel volume trends and competitive landscape - Management indicated no significant differences in customer behavior between Walmart and non-Walmart locations and noted competitive pressures in certain markets [96][98]