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Murphy USA (MUSA) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-31 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, same store fuel volumes decreased by 3.2%, but July volumes rebounded to 100% of prior year levels [6][14] - The company expects to be at or slightly below the low end of its annual guidance range of 240,000 to 245,000 average per store month for fuel volumes [14] - Merchandise contribution margin is projected to be within the low end of the guided range of $855 million to $875 million, with Q2 merchandising contribution at Murphy USA branded stores up 8.9% excluding cigarettes and lottery [15][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-combustible nicotine categories are growing at a rate that offsets the decline in cigarette margins, which represent only 30% of total nicotine margin contribution [7] - Average per store month food and beverage sales at QuickChek have been positive for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance despite industry challenges [8] - Merchandise contribution increased by 8.9% for the quarter, driven by strength in candy and packaged beverages [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail fuel margins improved by 50 basis points in 2024 and are seeing an 80 basis point improvement year-to-date in 2025 [11] - The company outpaced OPUS volumes in each of its markets for the full quarter, indicating a competitive position despite overall market challenges [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining store profitability through operational cost improvements and is excited about the quality of its new store pipeline, with plans to deliver 50 new stores over the next twelve months [12][19] - The capital allocation strategy remains a fifty-fifty approach, balancing growth investments and shareholder returns, with a commitment to share repurchases [20][91] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term potential of the business, particularly in connection with a $1.3 billion EBITDA target for 2028, despite some metrics being slower than anticipated [21][22] - The company is managing costs effectively in a challenging demand environment, with a focus on maintaining a low-cost operating model [54] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 471,000 shares in Q2, bringing year-to-date repurchases to nearly 900,000 shares, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [20] - The effective tax rate for the first half was 22%, with expectations for the second half to be within the guided range of 24% to 26% [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in gallons and market share - Management noted that trends worsened partly due to a different same store base and that margins improved despite lower volumes [30][31] Question: Guidance reiteration - Management confirmed that while they do not provide EBITDA guidance, they are managing offsets between merchandise pressure and operational expenses effectively [34] Question: Store build confidence - Management highlighted that bottlenecks have been addressed, and the pipeline for new stores is robust, with confidence in meeting the target of 40 new stores in 2025 [38][42] Question: Demand environment and cost flexibility - Management discussed the importance of consumer price sensitivity and the ability to optimize costs in response to lower demand [46][49] Question: Merchandise contribution growth - Management expressed confidence in achieving growth in merchandise contribution, driven by strong performance in specific categories and initiatives to increase customer loyalty [58][60] Question: Fuel volume trends and competitive landscape - Management indicated no significant differences in customer behavior between Walmart and non-Walmart locations and noted competitive pressures in certain markets [96][98]
Altria (MO) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
ZACKS· 2025-07-23 15:00
Core Viewpoint - Altria is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite a decline in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating potential impacts on its stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Altria's quarterly earnings is $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +4.6%, while revenues are projected to be $5.19 billion, down 1.7% from the previous year [3]. - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.51%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Altria is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.03%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Altria currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, combined with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Altria exceeded the expected earnings of $1.17 per share by delivering $1.23, resulting in a surprise of +5.13% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Altria has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - Altria is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance beyond just earnings results [17].
X @Investopedia
Investopedia· 2025-07-22 23:00
Philip Morris International shares sank Tuesday after the tobacco giant missed quarterly sales estimates as demand for cigarettes continued to decline. https://t.co/jxUXPWbJ2K ...
Philip Morris (PM) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-07-22 15:00
Core Insights - Philip Morris reported $10.14 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, with an EPS of $1.91 compared to $1.59 a year ago, indicating positive growth despite a slight revenue miss against estimates [1] - The company’s revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.12%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate by 3.24% [1] Financial Performance - Shipment Volume for Cigarettes and HTUs totaled 194.06 billion, slightly below the average estimate of 195.25 billion [4] - Shipment Volume for EA, AU & PMI DF was 28.33 billion, surpassing the average estimate of 27.1 billion [4] - Shipment Volume for SSEA, CIS & MEA reached 95.33 billion, close to the average estimate of 95.56 billion [4] - Shipment Volume for Americas was 15.33 billion, below the average estimate of 16.46 billion [4] Geographic Revenue Breakdown - Net Revenues for EA, AU & PMI DF were $1.71 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $1.77 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +2.1% [4] - Net Revenues for Europe amounted to $4.23 billion, slightly below the estimated $4.26 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +11% [4] - Net Revenues for SSEA, CIS & MEA were $2.93 billion, matching the average estimate, with a year-over-year change of +5.6% [4] - Net Revenues for Americas were $1.27 billion, below the average estimate of $1.33 billion, showing a year-over-year change of +12.7% [4] Smoke-Free and Combustible Tobacco Revenue - Net Revenues from Smoke-Free Excl. W&H in SSEA, CIS & MEA were $365 million, below the average estimate of $398.54 million, with a year-over-year change of +7.7% [4] - Net Revenues from Smoke-Free Excl. W&H in EA, AU & PMI DF were $1.05 billion, slightly below the estimated $1.07 billion, reflecting a -0.2% change year-over-year [4] - Total Net Revenues from Smoke-Free Excl. W&H were $4.1 billion, below the average estimate of $4.23 billion, with a year-over-year increase of +16.3% [4] - Total Net Revenues from Combustible Tobacco were $5.98 billion, below the average estimate of $6.08 billion, with a year-over-year change of +2.1% [4] Stock Performance - Philip Morris shares have returned -2.4% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.9% change, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential for outperformance in the near term [3]
Gear Up for Philip Morris (PM) Q2 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
ZACKS· 2025-07-17 14:15
Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.85 per share, reflecting a 16.4% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $10.25 billion, an 8.3% increase from the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate 0.5% higher over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation of initial estimates [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The estimated 'Net Revenues- Smoke-Free Excl. W&H- Total' is projected at $4.23 billion, showing a year-over-year change of +19.7% [4]. - 'Net Revenues- Combustible Tobacco- Total' is expected to reach $6.08 billion, indicating a +3.8% change from the prior-year quarter [4]. - 'Net Revenues by Geography- EA, AU & PMI DF' is forecasted at $1.77 billion, reflecting a +6.1% year-over-year change [5]. - 'Net Revenues by Geography- Europe' is anticipated to be $4.26 billion, with an +11.8% change from the previous year [5]. - 'Net Revenues by Geography- SSEA, CIS & MEA' is estimated at $2.93 billion, indicating a +5.9% change [5]. - 'Net Revenues by Geography- Americas' is projected to reach $1.33 billion, reflecting a +17.8% change from the prior-year quarter [6]. Shipment Volume Estimates - 'Shipment Volume - Cigarettes and HTUs - Total' is expected to be 195.25 billion, compared to 193.16 billion in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Shipment Volume - EA, AU & PMI DF - Total' is projected at 27.10 billion, slightly down from 27.35 billion year-over-year [7]. - 'Shipment Volume - SSEA, CIS & MEA - Total' is expected to be 95.56 billion, compared to 94.33 billion in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Shipment Volume - Americas - Total' is forecasted to reach 16.46 billion, up from 15.09 billion in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Shipment Volume - Cigarettes and HTUs - Heated Tobacco Units' is projected at 38.37 billion, compared to 35.54 billion in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Shipment Volume - Americas - Cigarettes' is expected to be 14.59 billion, slightly down from 14.89 billion year-over-year [9]. Market Performance - Philip Morris shares have shown a return of +0.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +4.2% [10].