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摩根士丹利:人工智能是否正在催生甲骨文后台超级周期
摩根· 2025-06-16 03:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains a high-conviction Overweight rating for Oracle and related companies within the Office of the CFO coverage group, including BlackLine, OneStream, and Vertex [1][4]. Core Insights - The accelerating growth of Oracle Fusion and NetSuite, driven by AI, indicates a potential Back-Office Supercycle extending beyond the SAP ecosystem, enhancing confidence in investment calls [1][4]. - Oracle's F4Q25 results exceeded expectations, with Fusion's growth accelerating to 22% YoY and NetSuite to 18% YoY, with further growth anticipated in FY26 [2][11]. - The need for organizations to adopt AI is prompting upgrades from on-premises to cloud solutions, as AI capabilities are exclusively available in the cloud [2][4]. Summary by Sections Oracle's Performance - Oracle's recent results suggest a significant inflection point for ERP upgrades to the cloud, indicating increased demand for services associated with ERP cloud migrations [4]. - The report highlights that Oracle's strategic SaaS products are gaining popularity as they enable advanced AI capabilities, which are unavailable in on-premise systems [5][8]. Market Dynamics - SAP has been leading the Back-Office Supercycle with a more aggressive cloud migration strategy, which has positively impacted their cloud backlog growth [3]. - The report notes that the ability to leverage AI is a primary driver for CIOs upgrading their ERP platforms, as indicated by a recent survey [12]. Future Outlook - The anticipated ERP upgrades are expected to drive additional demand for services related to Oracle's cloud offerings, reinforcing the Overweight calls on BlackLine, OneStream, and Vertex [4]. - The report emphasizes that Vertex stands to benefit significantly due to its close relationship with Oracle [4].