Earnings Inflection
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IDFC First Bank shares can rally 23%, says Nomura after initiating coverage with Buy call
The Economic Times· 2026-01-07 04:40
Core Viewpoint - Nomura initiated coverage on IDFC First Bank with a Buy rating, projecting a target price of Rs 105, indicating a potential upside of 23.5% from current levels [9]. Growth Projections - Strong growth visibility is anticipated, with loans and deposits expected to achieve CAGRs of 20% and 22%, respectively, over FY26-28F [9]. - The bank's fee income profile is noted to be superior to peers, exceeding 2% of average assets [9]. Profitability Improvement - A decline of 35 basis points in credit costs is expected to enhance profitability, with RoA and RoE projected to rise to 1.2% and 1.8% by FY28, up from 0.6% and 5.4% in FY26 [2][9]. - This earnings acceleration is forecasted to result in a sector-leading EPS CAGR of 67% over FY26-28F [2]. Operating Efficiency - Operating expenses have remained high during FY19-25 due to investments in branches, manpower, technology, and new businesses [3]. - As growth normalizes, cost efficiency is expected to improve, with cost-to-assets and cost-to-income ratios projected to decline to 5.1% and 64% by FY28F, from 5.6% and 71% in FY26F, respectively [3]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) Outlook - NIM pressure experienced over FY25-H1FY26 is largely absorbed, with expectations for NIMs to bottom out in FY26 and gradually recover through FY27 [6]. - Potential cuts in savings account rates could add 17-33 basis points to margins and 12-23 basis points to RoAs [6]. Asset Quality and Credit Costs - Asset quality stress is primarily confined to the microfinance portfolio, with corrective measures already taken [7]. - Credit costs are expected to moderate, with projections of 1.9% in FY27 and 1.8% in FY28, compared to 2.6% in FY25 and 2.1% in FY26F [7]. Earnings Inflection - Sustained loan growth, improving operating leverage, and moderating credit costs are anticipated to drive a significant earnings inflection over FY26-28F, alongside a material improvement in profitability [8].
NCLH's Profitability Profile Improves: Is the Turnaround Taking Hold?
ZACKS· 2026-01-02 15:01
Core Viewpoint - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is focusing on 2026 as a crucial year for its recovery, with management indicating that operational improvements are leading to more sustainable earnings momentum [1] Group 1: Operational Improvements - NCLH reported a load factor of 106.4% in Q3 2025 and anticipates occupancy to remain above historical norms into 2026, driven by increased short-duration Caribbean sailings and stronger family demand [2] - The company is experiencing margin-accretive trade-offs despite modest pressure on blended pricing due to the incremental guests carrying low variable costs and supporting onboard spending [2] Group 2: Cost Management - Management is confident in maintaining sub-inflationary cost growth, having achieved over 600 basis points of margin expansion since 2023 through a multi-year efficiency program [3] - Additional cost savings are expected for 2026, with operating leverage anticipated to strengthen as capacity grows and marketing efficiency improves [3] Group 3: Financial Position - NCLH's leverage is projected to trend toward the mid-4x range as earnings expand and refinancing actions reduce financial risk, positioning the company for a more durable growth profile [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NCLH's 2026 earnings per share has been revised upward from $2.64 to $2.67 over the past 30 days, indicating a projected 26.9% rise in earnings for 2026 [9][10] Group 4: Market Performance - NCLH shares have declined by 12.1% over the past year, contrasting with a 5% growth in the industry, while competitors like Royal Caribbean and Carnival have seen gains of 21.9% and 25.3%, respectively [5] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E multiple of 10.59, significantly below the industry average of 18.57, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers [8]
FedEx Bets On Cost Cuts To Boost Margins, Says Analyst - FedEx (NYSE:FDX)
Benzinga· 2025-09-19 17:46
Core Insights - FedEx Corporation reported strong quarterly performance, exceeding revenue and profit expectations with adjusted earnings per share of $3.83 and sales of $22.20 billion [1] - Bank of America analyst Ken Hoexter maintained a Neutral rating on FedEx, raising the price forecast from $240 to $244 [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share of $3.83 surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.62 [1] - Sales of $22.20 billion exceeded the consensus estimate of $21.66 billion [1] Analyst Commentary - Hoexter noted that FedEx has historically traded at 12.5x–18.5x earnings, but current multiples are pressured by macro sensitivity and ongoing volume declines [2] - Cost reductions are expected to support margins as earnings improve, with management focused on integrating Ground and Express services [2] Future Guidance - FedEx's fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS target is set at $17.20–$19.00, indicating a slight year-over-year decline despite projected revenue growth of 4%–6% [3] - Guidance includes a $1 billion operating-income drag from global trade shifts and a $160 million impact from the USPS contract ending [4] Earnings Estimates - Fiscal 2026 earnings estimates were raised from $17.75 to $18.00, while fiscal 2027 estimates increased from $20.45 to $21.05 [5] - FDX shares were trading higher by 2.95% to $233.26 [5]