Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered. Core Insights - The timing of tariff impacts on the economy will depend on the actual application of tariffs and the outcomes of ongoing negotiations [4] - Trade negotiations typically take years rather than months, indicating that any near-term outcomes may be limited to framework agreements or narrow deals [8] - The interaction between country-specific tariffs and sector-based tariffs remains uncertain, with upcoming deadlines in July and August expected to provide clarity [9][11] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - A series of tariff deadlines are approaching, with significant negotiations involving the US, Japan, India, Mexico, and Canada in July, followed by China in August [9] - Historical experiences suggest that trade negotiations can span several years, with the UK-US trade agreement serving as a reference point for future deals [12][22] - The report anticipates that the administration may seek to extend the July 9 deadline, citing progress in trade discussions [11] Economic Implications - Opinion polling indicates that voters do not currently perceive a negative impact from tariffs, which may reduce political risks associated with tariff escalations [13] - The economic effects of tariffs have not yet manifested in hard data, with delays expected in the transmission of price changes due to tariffs [30][31] - The report highlights that the effective tariff rate is expected to stabilize around mid-teens percentages, with ongoing legal challenges and negotiations influencing final levels [11][33] Sector and Country Tariffs - The report discusses the complexity of how country and sector tariffs will interact, particularly in the context of the USMCA and ongoing bilateral negotiations [15][16] - The categorization of trade with Canada and Mexico will significantly affect tariff levels, with a mix of Most Favored Nation (MFN) and USMCA compliance currently in place [20] - The transition from country to sector tariffs is a key focus, with implications for supply chains and revenue generation from tariffs [21][34]